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Prediction markets for Black

Will the next Agent 007 (after "No Time To Die") be black?

Oct 13, 11:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.07%chance

8328182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4292

339

Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Black by 2028?

Jun 29, 7:18 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM

39.02%chance

756000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

1146

Is there a Black Hole in our Solar System?

May 11, 7:56 PMDec 20, 5:59 AM

13.61%chance

433653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

845

Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025

Jul 2, 7:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.87%chance

213474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3699

434

Can Black force a draw in chess?

Nov 18, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

88.6%chance

313271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1523

825

Will one of the next 10 popes be black?

Mar 7, 5:20 PMApr 1, 9:59 PM

76.81%chance

251414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1837

498

Will Noam Chomsky get a black bar on hnews when he passes away

May 12, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

26.86%chance

161194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

547

US public opinion, 2026: Worse outcomes for Black people, mainly from discrimination?

Jun 27, 8:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.02%chance

101123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1829

547

Do we live inside a black hole?

Apr 2, 7:10 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.69%chance

341037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

921

Will humans create a black hole by 2100?

Nov 2, 12:52 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

10.24%chance

19711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

861

Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible?

Jan 2, 9:24 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.46%chance

15512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

786

Will "The Lizardman and the Black Hat Bobcat" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 17, 12:51 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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