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Blackwell News

    Prediction markets for Blackwell

    What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

    Dec 19, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    20754287

    OptionProbability

    The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

    Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

    Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

    Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

    Anthropic releases Claude 5

    The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

    OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

    Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

    Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

    FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

    Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

    Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

    SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

    Grok 5 will be released

    An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

    Google will outperform the S&P

    Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

    I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

    Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

    Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

    A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

    Nvidia will outperform the S&P

    I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

    Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

    OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

    SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

    I will meet someone who has an AI companion

    My median ASI timelines will shorten

    Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

    ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

    OpenAI releases GPT-6

    I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

    I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

    Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

    The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

    The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

    FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

    Anthropic IPO

    Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

    I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

    xAI IPO

    Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

    Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

    An LLM will beat me at chess

    Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

    There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

    At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

    SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

    Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

    Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

    SSI will release a product

    My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

    There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

    OpenAI IPO

    I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

    There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

    S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

    The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

    AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

    There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

    I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

    The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

    An LLM will beat me at Shogi

    Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

    There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

    SSI will be valued at >= $100B

    Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

    Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

    An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

    US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

    Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

    Anthropic releases Claude 6

    There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

    SSI IPO

    An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

    I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

    Grok 6 will be released

    OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

    I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

    Anthropic will release an image/video model

    An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

    An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

    Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

    S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

    Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

    China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

    Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

    Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

    I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

    Yudkowsky will publish a new book

    Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

    SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

    An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

    GPT-4o remains available to free ChatGPT users at the end of the year

    100

    98

    98

    96

    95

    94

    89

    89

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    87

    87

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    83

    80

    80

    79

    76

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    75

    75

    66

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    63

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    54

    54

    50

    49

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    40

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    35

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    26

    26

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    8

    8

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    5

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    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    1

    0

    OptionProbability

    <10000

    10,000 - 99,999

    100,000 - 333,333

    333,334 - 999,999

    1,000,000+

    35

    26

    18

    11

    9

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1542

    776

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