Blackwells News

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

Grok 5 will be released

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Google will outperform the S&P

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

Anthropic IPO

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

OpenAI releases GPT-6

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

OpenAI IPO

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

xAI IPO

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

My median ASI timelines will shorten

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

Anthropic will release an image/video model

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

An LLM will beat me at chess

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

SSI will release a product

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

Anthropic releases Claude 6

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

SSI IPO

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

Grok 6 will be released

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

YES

<10000

10,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 333,333

333,334 - 999,999

NO