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Top stories

Eric Jackson Promotes Opendoor $OPEN With $500 Target, Cites Supply Advantage, Campaigns Outside Drake’s Home During European Tour

Authors

7

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Bloomberg Business

Will Michael Bloomberg (mayor, businessman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 9, 1:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

121065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2040

861

Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.01%chance

15370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

931

Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?

Aug 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.24%chance

13363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

37

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

Apr 8, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.05%chance

5158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027

Aug 12, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

12155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

90

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

May 14, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.3%chance

3154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

Feb 10, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.48%chance

4117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

90

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2030

Aug 5, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.3%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

Which of these AI companies will shut down first?

Nov 3, 2:52 PMDec 31, 2:48 PM

562

OptionProbability

Perplexity

xAI

Other

OpenAI

Anthropic

38

28

19

7

7

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027

Aug 5, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.9%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

988

Who Walmart buys eBay on 2029 only

Feb 10, 2:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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