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Prediction markets for Bloomberg Economics

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.84%chance

406138987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3429

292

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

Jul 13, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.22%chance

3410025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

488

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.37%chance

404076

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

645

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

Jan 13, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.82%chance

383933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

27

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

48.17%chance

16737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

378

315

Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035?

Sep 7, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.97%chance

12622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

397

25

Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?

May 8, 3:47 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

13%chance

9380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Who leaked the Dmitriev-Witkoff and Dmitriev-Ushakov calls? (ADD ANSWERS)

Nov 26, 1:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2243

OptionProbability

Someone within the Trump administration

Russia

Ukraine

Another European country

A journalist or private signals intelligence enthusiast

Other

18

16

16

16

16

16

WIll the United States Economy avoid a recession by 2029?

Jan 12, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.79%chance

8182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Will China impose new trade restrictions on Taiwan before October 31, 2026?

Aug 4, 3:18 AMOct 30, 11:59 PM

16.74%chance

6127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

45

Will Apple become defunct before 2100?

Sep 24, 5:44 AMDec 31, 7:30 AM

20%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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