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Prediction markets for Bloomberg Economics

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.51%chance

395131940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2646

378

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

Jul 13, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.36%chance

237191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2442

409

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.99%chance

363347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

750

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

Jan 13, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

353159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Australian dollar at or below 0.50 USD by EOY2026?

Apr 11, 12:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.86%chance

8907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

499

20

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

29.82%chance

13556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

489

269

Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?

May 2, 1:12 AMAug 2, 1:12 AM

3.9%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

497

20

Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?

May 8, 3:47 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

13%chance

9380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Who leaked the Dmitriev-Witkoff and Dmitriev-Ushakov calls? (ADD ANSWERS)

Nov 26, 1:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2243

OptionProbability

Someone within the Trump administration

Russia

Ukraine

Another European country

A journalist or private signals intelligence enthusiast

Other

18

16

16

16

16

16

WIll the United States Economy avoid a recession by 2029?

Jan 12, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.18%chance

8172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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