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Prediction markets for Bloomberg Invest

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

395131874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2709

369

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.94%chance

2915988

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7381

168

Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

61.37%chance

68661

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12605

7933

Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

65.01%chance

65869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13630

7337

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.99%chance

363347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

750

Which companies will the Trump administration take a stake in?

Oct 13, 12:01 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

112134

OptionProbability

USA Rare Earth

ExxonMobile

Chevron

Sunoco

GlobalFoundries

Boeing

Ford

Palantir

Tesla

AMD

United Health

Moderna

55

50

50

50

35

29

17

17

15

15

12

8

Will Google acquire Anthropic by December 31, 2026 ?

Jan 4, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.34%chance

231693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

646

15

AUM of all prediction market ETFs by end of August 2026

Apr 29, 1:07 AMApr 29, 3:59 AM

4400

OptionProbability

500M - 999.9M

100M - 499.9M

0 - 99.9M

1B - 4.99B

5B - 10B

Above 10B

38

27

17

6

6

6

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.2%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Which multistrategy hedge fund (pod shop) will blow up by 2027 year end?

Oct 9, 12:53 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

490

OptionProbability

Other

Millennium

Citadel

Point72

Balyasny

None

53

10

10

10

10

8

Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

Feb 10, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.92%chance

374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

69

Will https://www.tetsuwan.com/ Series A by EOY2028?

May 15, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.96%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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