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Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

J.B. Pritzker

Cory Booker

Tim Walz

Wes Moore

Raphael Warnock

Jon Ossoff

Ro Khanna

Mark Cuban

Ruben Gallego

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Jared Polis

Michelle Obama

Amy Klobuchar

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Bernie Sanders

Tammy Duckworth

Mark Kelly

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Kathy Hochul

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Jamie Raskin

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Jon Stewart

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Hunter Biden

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Arson

Murder

Genocide

2008 bank bailouts

two financial crimes

Sexual assault

Rape

Election fraud

financial crimes veiled as altruism

ballot harvesting

Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power

Racism against Asian people

Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or accountant who should know better but may have more at stake with risk of being struck off

Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care about you

Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight

financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent

offering drugs to a minor

stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent alcoholic

Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open borders

Sacrificing a child to R'hllor

Committing a moderately big financial crime (>$1 million)

Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)

Hiring an illegal immigrant as your personal full-time sex slave

Lobbying congress to ban your competitors

buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you

Protecting sex-offending priests/pastors by moving them to different parishes

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by stealing catalytic converters off people's cars

Introducing leaded gasoline to the market (in 1924)

Rigging a piano to explode when a certain key is hit and leaving a piece of sheet music on it that requires that note to be played

Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner

Space Piracy: commandeering ISS, enslaving the crew, plundering it for equipment and using it to attack other spacecraft

Taxing Asian immigrants to pay “slavery reparations’ to Ethiopian immigrants

Passing the Jones act to ban senator jones’ competitors

Setting Bigfoot on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of cryptozoologists.

marketing sugary processed foods to people despite knowing it will kill millions of them

Giving away free samples of meth at a school

Running for reelection as POTUS and refusing to step aside after showing signs of significant cognitive decline, resulting in an 80% probability that a convicted felon will be elected in your place.

Encouraging 10 people to commit a financial crime

Committing war crime.

Intensive pig farming

Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company

Giving away free samples of meth at tech startups

Consolidating dictatorial power (e.g. suspending elections, controlling courts, etc.) while maintaining a popular mandate (i.e. significant majority of the country supports you and your actions in accurate, unpressured polls)

Firebombing a major city

Genocide committed by moving foodstuffs out of an area suffering severe famine.

Restricting the rights and privileges of the majority population to consolidate the political and economic power

Farming octopuses for food

Whatever is going on at Boeing

Setting a cryptozoologist on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of bigfoots.

Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths

Giving a (hypothetical) IQ-boosting treatment only to the most corrupt, vicious, and malicious people you can find

Doing physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's child as a collections agent

Forcing kindergartners to huff jenkem for an entire school day.

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent

Conducting evidence-free civil asset forfeiture

Fighting a sea house with a financial crime and going to McDonald’s and giving a really bad yelp review and suing for a financial crime when you are beating up the sea horse

Octopi farming us for food

Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.

Unintentionally causing a bug that wastes 1 million hours of human time

Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"

Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians

Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways

Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap

Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)

Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information

Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter

Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food

Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food

Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent

Crashing the Titantic, leading to it sinking

Free ice cream, at taxpayer expense, but only for gingers

Committing a Financial Crime with Shoes On The Bed

Embezzling money from a charity opposed to farming octopuses

Creating Hell, making it possible that humans suffer infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Ressurecting the Rocky Mountain Locust (Melanoplus spretus)

creating misaligned AI that tiles the universe with octopus farms

Forcing an octopus to commit sepekku

forcing an octopus to commit a financial crime

Murdering 5,000 people by feeding them to all animals of the sea, including aquaman, mermaids, octopuses, and sea horses.

Octopus sex trafficking.

Filming a documentary where you get an octopus to trust you, luring it out into the open, and then don't help when it gets attacked by sharks.

Filming a documentary where you invite your girlfriend to an Alaskan camp surrounded by bears and then messing with those bears.

Introducing polar bears to Antarctica and then renaming them “bipolar bears.”

Appointing one random drug dealer with no legal experience to the Supreme Court of the United States

Appointing Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court

Hanging on to a Supreme Court seat so Trump can appoint your replacement rather than retiring and keeping a liberal seat

Selling pies made out of orphan meat.

Condemning two hundred men to a slow death at sea because their coworker shot your favorite bird.

Enslaving a group of people for hundreds of years, terrorizing them for another hundred, then telling them you are tired of hearing them complain about it.

Selling orphans fed only pie meat

Feeding a child only nachos until they are 18 to create an adult who is 100% nachos

Slaughtering bears without a permit because the US Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms

Replacing all the samples at a sperm bank with your own.

Delivering angry skunks to the offices of rival investors to incapacitate them just before quarterly earnings reports.

Committing two financial crimes and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Quackery - Traveling town to town selling snake oil remedies in a horse drawn carriage while wearing a top hat

Dueling - settling a dispute in the 21st century America with pistols at dawn

Go to an orphanage and have starving orphans battle over a hamburger with guns and swords while committing a financial crime

Twelve counts of murder in the first degree, fourteen counts of armed theft of Federation property, twenty two counts of piracy in high space, eighteen counts of fraud, thirty seven counts of rape... and one moving violation.

Causing people to go without essential items like water and fuel during emergencies by means of anti-price-gouging laws

Judging policies by their stated intent, not by their effect

Purposefully inciting a sea-bear attack

Enslaving a particularly dim-witted alien race so poor humans don't have to spend their lives asteroid mining.

Stealing a SpaceX Starship

Getting nuns pregnant by dressing them as altar boys.

Carjacking an old lady

Committing a financial crime and spending the proceeds on a plane ticket to Texas so you can go carjack Elon Musk, and then doing so

Forcing jockeys to run around a track for the entertainment of a race of hyperintelligent horses

Carjacking a hyperintelligent horse

Stealing the Declaration of Independence

Operating a child beauty pageant

Andrew Tate

Intentionally causing a bug that wastes 80,000 hours of human time

Putting motherfucking snakes on a motherfucking plane to kill one specific passenger

Having trains so bad and expensive that venture capital reinvents them

A regulatory environment that results in really bad trains

Trying to run a modern 21st century society on a hierarchical 18th century constitution

Artie Chokes Two for $1: Hiring a man named Artie to choke two people for a dollar to generate a headline falsely promising low-cost produce.

The first thing you do after sex is to resume the autopsy whilst telling yourself that one error in judgment doesn’t make you a bad vet.

Invent a system of taxation where the government won’t tell citizens what they owe, but instead will make them do a super complicated math problem and then send them to jail if they do it incorrectly.

Putting a pair of immortal adult children in an everlasting garden, then punishing them for the one thing you forbade, yet knew they must eventually do, given the nature of eternity.

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to bootstrap itself to AGI by testing on your clones according to a mixture of Popperian and Bayesian formulas

Inventing a system of taxation that encourages bad land use and a housing crisis by taxing at 0% the unimproved value of land

Committing a violent crime that does not result in any injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in one person's death

Committing a violent crime that results in ten people's deaths

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a serious injury to another person

Handing out counterfeit money to homeless beggars, in the hope that they'll get arrested for spending it.

Snatching household pets to fatten coyotes to feed to your pet tiger.

Stealing oxygen in an international moon base during an acute shortage, while deflecting suspicion toward the Belgian astronaut who nobody likes.

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in your own death and no other injuries

Not committing a financial crime because you have commitment issues, but then sneaking around on the side and doing other financial crimes.

Sending a busload of orphans to a convent of cannibalistic nuns, who deal crack to middle school kids.

A law enforcement agency publicly declaring a specific individual to be “a person of interest,” thereby ruining their life even though the individual turns out to be innocent.

Being responsible for more than 50 percent of the cases of necrophilia in the funeral industry during any fiscal year.

As President, using a sharpie on an official weather forecast to extend the predicted area of danger, thereby needlessly frightening people who are not in danger.

Committing a financial crime while being the mayor of NYC

Attacking the lower classes: first with bombs, and rockets destroying their homes, and then when they run helpless into the streets, mowing them down with machine guns. And then of course releasing the vultures.

Cannibalism in the current British Navy.

Turning your girlfriend into a worm to win an argument

One hundred moving violations

Denying health insurance claims from impoverished family for flimsy reasons

Attempting or successfully couping a Democratically elected leader for personal gain

Touching minors/ being a pedophile

Deliberately targeting civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts

Conducting widespread or systematic rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war

Invading the UK, making it a US territory, and naming it East Long Island.

Stealing Nicholas Cage

Gender "reparative therapy" of minors

Signing Deshaun Watson (who previously had to settle millions of dollars in sexual assault cases) to a 5 year, 230 Million fully guaranteed contract

Building a gambling app using money originating from a financial crime

Going back in time and smothering baby Hitler, but also, via butterfly effect, undoing everyone born later (assume single timeline, no multiverse)

Moving hundreds of thousands of children to a foreign country and forcibly "reeducating" them

The genocide in Gaza

Russia's genocide in Ukraine

Murdering someone that habitually commits financial crimes

Slavery

Grooming kids

Being the leader of a crime syndicate

9/11

Stranding two astronauts in space

Disturbing the space-time continuum

Sending dick pics to a student enrolled in your MOOC

Quackery: traveling town to town selling snake-oil remedies while carrying a duck

Voting for the NSDAP in the November 1932 German federal election

Forced mass uploading of biological consciousness to sidestep x risk

Attempting and failing to commit two financial crimes

Voting against a public inquiry on grooming gangs in the UK

A 20-year old having consensual sex with a 15-year-old

Knowing of two imminent financial crimes, being able to stop them with negligible effort and no risk to yourself, and not doing so

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by a series of petty shoplifts

De-extinction for your delectation: Bringing an extinct species back just to make it extinct again by serving it to gourmet diners as the highlight of an expensive meal.

Sexual harassment

Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the entire proceeds to a legitimate and worthy charity (assume the donations are not clawed back)

Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all

Killing the United Healthcare CEO

Purchasing 50,000 pounds of beef

Forcing a home owner to quarter soldiers, even in a time of war

Claiming to "Blind Shove" 200 big blinds pre-flop when secretly you looked and you had pocket Aces

Raising and selling 50,000 lbs of beef

Sheltering enemies of the state

Kicking a FG from the opponents 1 yard line on 4th down in a 0-0 game in the first quarter

Having a really good proof but not writing it anywhere because the margin is too small

Weaponizing autism

Having a podcast

Yelling racial slurs in public

Jaywalking

Pelting a moose with stale garlic knots out of season.

Cheating on spouse

Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)

Playing music (or other audio) on your phone speaker on public transport

Income taxes

Copyright infringement

Romeo and Juliet relationships

Replying all to an email when you should've just replied

Welfare fraud

Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs

Grave robbery

Saying the N-word every day as a white person

Discrimination based on race

Discrimination based on sexual orientation

Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor

Having sex in public while high on fentanyl

Racism against black people

Racism against white people

Sleep Token (Band)

not seeding your torrents

Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event

Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at history's greatest tragedies

Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for victims of a mass tragedy

Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which later leads to the insolvency administrator paying back the injured parties (including interest).

Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a frontier model, with the goal of speeding up the progress towards human-level AGI.

Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich

Hiring only women because the NYT said you could pay them less for the same work

hiring three illegal immigrants to work on your sugarcane plantation

opening a factory in India that pays workers $4/day

twincest

drawing japanese tentacle porn featuring minors

Hiring the one from the more successful demographic out of two identical resumes, because of regression to the mean / biased college admissions

working as a prostitute

hiring a prostitute

hiring a prostitute, long term

Inventing Monero

Running a bank that invests demand deposits in junk bonds and tech stocks

Opening clinics for free abortions and IUDs, only in the ghetto

Giving away free samples of meth at a Dolly Parton concert

The most offensive Halloween costume ever

frisking two drug dealers and one innocent guy who was just loitering on a busy street corner saying "Hey do you need anything" to every stranger who walked past

Doing blackface

Keeping a dozen chimpanzees for entertainment purposes

Prosecuting a political opponent based on true charges that would normally not be pursued

the Asiana flight 214 prank

Giving free samples of meth to Joe Biden before the next debate

Cloning yourself

Threatening physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

making mifeprestone available OTC

making adderall available OTC

Killing yourself

Cloning someone else

Accidentally shooting and killing someone on a movie set

Asking GPT5 to maximize paperclips

Giving free baby formula to new mothers until their natural milk supply dries up

Kicking a donkey owned by a ninja in the butt.

Creating shit-options in an extremely serious and scientific market

Creating a prediction market website where markets are mostly about the platform itself

Staging the world's first ass ass assasin assasination by hiring a New Jersey hit man to whack a ninja hired to shoot an arrow at the backside of a donkey.

Betting yes on Biden being be the nominee at 7x leverage with play money, then defaulting

Calling octopuses "octopi"

Going excessively meta on an object-level topic

Illegally registering octopuses to vote

Registering illegals to vote for octopuses

Creating a targeted advertising campaign for free abortions and IUDs to people who are statistically likely to engage in financial crime

The school system failing to teach people that the real correct plural is octopodes

"James Bond-burgering" someone's sister

Wrongfully accusing someone of the same financial crime

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime because you think they did it

Feeding an elderly man nothing but McDonald’s morning noon and night for the rest of his life.

Conducting gain-of-function research

Creating an unsolvable meme featuring James Bond and a hamburger so that people argue about it online for a decade

Publishing a step by step guide for how to commit a financial crime for free on the internet, but never promoting it or encouraging readers to follow through

Hosting and operating a website dedicated to the illegal sharing of copyrighted content

Adding an option to a market right before it closes

Writing a "goto" statement when programming

Advertising instant-runoff voting as "ranked choice" to prevent promotion of better ranked choice methods

Publishing a book, titled, "Cure Menopause with Ultraprocessed Foods"

Using crack cocaine to train the world's first chimp TSA agent.

Selling dope disguised as a nun.

Creating Heaven, allowing humans to prosper infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Inventing a new recipe that uses shrimp that causes 10 million new pounds of shrimp to be consumed annually

Using a conservative politician's LGBT+ identity as blackmail to make them support liberal policies

Voting for Benito Mussolini… in 2024

Arguing that grizzlies should be US citizens because they already have the right to bear arms.

Interrupting cows.

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns into a worm

Putting infinite monkeys in front of infinite Bloomberg Terminals hoping that one of them randomly commits a financial crime

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns you into a worm

One moving violation.

Purchasing one whole chicken

Committing a financial crime and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Cattle rustling

Horse thievery

Tarring and feathering someone who commits a financial crime

Sumptuary law violations

Homeopathy

Price Gouging

Using napster.com to download Metallica's "I Disappear" demo track for free

Failing to commit a financial crime

Stealing a car

Stealing from Elon Musk

Committing a financial crime against X (company)

Stampeding cattle through the Vatican.

Carjacking Elon Musk

An old lady carjacking Elon Musk

Hacking into YouPorn to steal their IP to set up a clone dedicated to hard core user generated agriculture content: YouCorn

Gaslighting aliens into believing the human race is more technologically advanced than it is by beaming fake content about humanity to them

Carjacking a dumb octopus

A financial crime committed by an old lady

Forcing an octopus to carjack Elon Musk

stealing Elon Musk's car from solar orbit

Raping an AI avatar in VR

Introducing artificial intelligence to DMT space.

Planned Parrothood: offering birth control to talking birds

Plant Parenthood: when the seed goes in and the baby turns out to be a sunflower

Stealing the Declaration of Independence in order to find a vast revolutionary-war-era treasure trove

Using venture capital to reinvent trains, but worse

Bad bagels

Enslaving Slavey Steve, a man who has given enthusiastic consent to being enslaved for literally any purpose and then using his labor to clean up the environment

Still getting notifications for this market

Deciding to break up with your girlfriend, but thinking it will go easier if she thinks it’s her idea, so you suggest some degrading sexual activities but she surprises you by agreeing. Afterwards, you break up with her.

Laughing because a nun with a javelin through her head gets stuck trying to use a revolving door.

scaring the shit out of a magpie

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to build a map of all quale and use it to create a computationally conscious race of dragons in a virtual universe

Committing sewerslide

Forcing a major sports league to change all its team names and mascots to either STDs or famous serial killers.

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a minor injury to another person

Stealing the Declaration of Independence but only to use the kick ass treasure map on the back and then returning

Arby’s

Passing a law to make the United States an Oregon donor; in the event of the US’s demise, another country gets Oregon.

Creating a food made from grinding up every part of a pig (except the squeal), and then making a contest to see who can eat the most of it.

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation and donating the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation, keeping 50% of the proceeds, and donating 50% of the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Forcing Elon Musk to commit a financial crime against an octopus and using the proceeds to pay a jacked jack-of-all-trades named Jack to jack off while carjacking a jackass that was driving factory-farmed ASIs to the slaughterhouse

Committing a Financial Crime Only When God Exists

Turning a worm into your girlfriend to win an argument

Causing 8 billion people to get dust specks in their eyes, irritating them just a little, for a fraction of a second, barely enough to make them notice before they blink and wipe it away

Causing 1 person to experience the pain of their entire body being stung by bullet ants, but lasting only a tenth of a second, and they have their memory of it wiped immediately afterwards

Founding Christianity

You, the reader

One hundred counts of littering

Purchasing 500 pounds of beef

Consensually cannibalizing someone who was losing that body part regardless

BTE Ban evading

Purchasing 5,000 pounds of beef

Producing a remake of the television series 'Manimal' starring Nicholas Cage.

Transing children

Redirecting fire department resources from fighting fires to fighting inequity

Taking a salary equal to the amount of the financial crime, while working in a government job of negative societal value?

Sexual intercourse with 1057 men in a 12 hour period

Gavin Newsom

JD Vance

Vermin Supreme

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

JB Pritzker

Nikki Haley

Jill Stein

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

Corey Booker

Tulsi Gabbard

Glenn Youngkin

Ron DeSantis

Vermin Supreme - NA REMAKING

Brian Schatz

Jared Polis

Tim Walz

Steve Bannon

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Ted Cruz

Josh Hawley

Greg Abbott

Cornel West

Marianne Williamson

Adam Schiff

Raphael Warnock

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Donald Trump

Ro Khanna

Vivek Ramaswamy

Stephen A. Smith

Katie Britt

John Ossoff

Michael Bloomberg

Mitch Landrieu

Tammy Duckworth

Tim Scott

Robert F Kennedy Jr

Brian Kemp

Donald Trump, Jr.

Scott Perry

Andy Kim

Kamala Harris

Elise Stefanik

Mark Cuban

Amy Klobuchar

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Nicole Shanahan

Byron Donalds

Martin O'Malley

Mark Fischbach

Chris Sununu

Roy Cooper

Marty Walsh

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Kristi Noem

Lauren Boebert

Matt Gaetz

Katie Porter

Chris Christie

John Fetterman

Elizabeth Warren

Andrew Yang

Wes Moore

Mike Pompeo

Daniel "Keemstar" Keem

Ron Paul

Cenk Uygur

Mike Pence

Michelle Obama

Bernie Sanders

Elon Musk

Samuel L. Jackson

Ilhan Omar

Chuck Norris

Mickey Mouse

Taylor Swift

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Julia Galef

Scott Alexander

Zvi Mowshowitz

Paul Christiano

Randall Munroe

Josh Shapiro

Jon Stewart

Peter Singer

@SemioticRivalry

Dwarkesh Patel

Gretchen Whitmer

Michelle Obama

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Sam Wendover

Spencer Greenberg

Tammy Duckworth

Kamala Harris

Emmanuel Macron

Andrew Yang

Jared Polis

Manifold Joshua

J. B. Pritzker

Satya Nadella

Aella

Katie Porter

Andrew Wiles

Andy Beshear

MrBeast

Gavin Newsom

@Mira

Garry Kasparov

William Mc Askill

Vermin Supreme

Eric Schmidt

Magnus Carlsen

Bill Gates

Raphael Warnock

Mark Cuban

Justin Trudeau

Bernie Sanders

Gordon Ramsay

@strutheo

Bryan Caplan

Ursula von der Leyen

Bill Maher

Manifold James

Sam Altman

Michael Bloomberg

Al Gore

Bryan Cranston

Kathy Hochul

Cory Booker

Blake Huber

Taylor Swift

Mitt Romney

A randomly selected active Manifold user

Manifold Austin

Jose Luis Ricon

Linus Torvalds

Warren Buffett

Keanu Reeves

Ray William Johnson

Cory Doctorow

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LeBron James

Zach Robinson

Nikil Saval

Ding Liren

@ZacParker

SCP-999

Stannis Baratheon

Alexandr Wang

Tim Cook

Jeff Bezos

Hillary Clinton

Chuck Norris

Liu Bei

Destiny

Cao Cao

Guillaume Verdon

Emma Watson

Oprah

Peter Thiel

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jimmy Carter

Anatoly Karpov

Rishi Sunak

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Anthony Fantano

Javier Milei

Nikki Haley

Sundar Pichai

Brian Tomasik

Lionel Messi

Cristiano Ronaldo

Mark Zuckerberg

Prince Harry

Jeb "Please Clap" Bush

Liz Cheney

Elon Musk

Yann Lecun

A randomly selected banned Manifold user

Rick Astley

Joe Rogan

Vivek Ramaswamy

Tucker Carlson

Ivanka Trump

Jordan Peterson

Ben Shapiro

Sam Bankman-Fried

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Max Tegmark

Emmett Shear

Bruce Schneier

George Church

Scott Aaronson

Daniel Kokotajlo

Ben Bernanke

Stephen Fry

Tim Urban

Grimes

Scott Alexander

A former Fed Chair

Neel Nanda

A professor of a Chinese university

Stuart Russell

Yoshua Bengio

Toby Ord

Geoffrey Hinton

Carl Feynman

Vitalik Buterin

Yuval Noah Harari

Nick Bostrom

Dwarkesh Patel

Kevin Roose

Geoffrey Irving

Billy Perrigo

Manifold

Helen Toner

Gwern

Ezra Klein

Evan Hubinger

Patrick McKenzie

Publishers Weekly

Vox

Christine Peterson

Keach Hagey

Bill Gates

Joe Rogan

San Francisco Chronicle

Peter Singer

Booklist

NPR

Politico

Lex Fridman

Any five current members of the UK Parliament

The Economist

Matthew Yglesias

David Chalmers

A former US Secretary of Treasury

A former US Secretary of State

A Scientific American editorial

Time

A former US Secretary of Energy

A former US Secretary of Commerce

WIRED

Gillian Hadfield

Karen Hao

A review in The Atlantic

Telegraph

Kurzgesagt

The New York Times Book Review

Peter Norvig

At least five Nobel laureates

Rolling Stone

The New Yorker

Tucker Carlson

A Science editorial

The Guardian

Ray Kurzweil

John Schulman

A current pope

Financial Times

Bloomberg Businessweek

Forbes

A New Scientist editorial

BBC

Eric Schmidt

A current US Secretary of Treasury

John Oliver

IEEE Spectrum

Vanity Fair

Elon Musk

Mustafa Suleyman

A current UK prime minister

Judea Pearl

António Guterres

Foreign Affairs

Barack Obama

Anthropic

A Nature editorial

The Washington Post

Associated Press

Any five current United States representatives

The Wall Street Journal

Shane Legg

Ilya Sutskever

roon

Alexandr Wang

Daron Acemoglu

A high-ranking Chinese government official

Reuters

RFK Jr

Richard Sutton

Ivanka Trump

Narendra Modi

Dario Amodei

Joe Biden

Terence Tao

OpenAI

CNN

Any five current United States senators

Peter Thiel

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jimmy Fallon

Demis Hassabis

Mira Murati

A current Fed Chair

Ursula von der Leyen

DeepMind

JD Vance

Daniela Amodei

Jensen Huang

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Satya Nadella

Greg Egan

A current US Secretary of Energy

Bill Clinton

JK Rowling

Noam Chomsky

Fox News

Chris Olah

A current US Secretary of Commerce

A current US Secretary of State

Donald J. Trump

Mr. Beast

Vladimir Putin

Tim Cook

Kamala Harris

King Charles

Xi Jinping

Taylor Swift

JD Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Donald Trump

AOC

Josh Shapiro

Ron DeSantis

Nikki Haley

Kamala Harris

Other candidate with Trump as their last name

Barack Obama

Cory Booker

Joe Biden

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Chris Christie

Elizabeth Warren

Bernie Sanders

Other Democrat Politician

Other Republican Politician

Kanye West

Michelle Obama

Hillary Clinton

Michael Bloomberg

Elon Musk

Ivanka Trump

Tulsi Gabbard

Other

Ritchie Torres

Anna Wintour

Jamie Dimon

Donald Trump Jr

Michael Bloomberg

Bill Ackman

Andrew Yang

Hillary Clinton

Derek Jeter

Robert De Niro

Michelle Obama

Rudy Giuliani

Al Pacino

Andrew Cuomo

Jim Walden

Invalid

Bashir al-Assad

Taylor Swift

Neri Oxman

Elon Musk

Jeffrey Epstein

Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)

Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)

Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)

Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)

Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)

Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)

Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)

Drake (Oct 24, 1986)

Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)

Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)

Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)

Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)

Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)

Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)

Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)

Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)

Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)

Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)

Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)

Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)

Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)

Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)

Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)

Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)

Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)

Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)

Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)

Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)

Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)

Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)

Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)

Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)

Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)

Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)

Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)

Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)

Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)

Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)

Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)

Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)

Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)

Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)

Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)

Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)

Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)

Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)

Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)

Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)

John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)

Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)

Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)

JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)

Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)

Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)

Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)

Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)

Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)

Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)

Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)

Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)

Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)

Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)

Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)

Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)

Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)

Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)

Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)

Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)

Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)

Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)

Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)

Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)

George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)

Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)

Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)

Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)

Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)

Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)

Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)

Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)

Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)

Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)

Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)

Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)

Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)

Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)

Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)

Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)

Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)

Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)

Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)

Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)

King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)

Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)

Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)

Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)

Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)

Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)

Bernie Madoff

Gavin Newsom

Other

AOC

Pete Butigieg

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

Cory Booker

Jb Pritzker

Darkhorse Celeb (Ex Lebron, Taylor Swift, Oprah)

Tim Walz

Ruben Gallego

Michelle Obama

Joe Manchin

Mark Cuban

Amy Klobuchar

Marianne Willamson

Andrew Yang

Bernie Sanders

Michael Bloomberg

Elizabeth Warren

Mark Cuban

Jon Stewart

Other

Liz Cheney

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Noam Chomsky

YES

Vitalik Buterin

Elon Musk

Jensen Huang

Dustin Moskovitz

Mark Zuckerberg

Warren Buffett

Bill Gates

Other

Jeff Bezos

Lakshmi Mittal

Alex Karp

Masayoshi Son

Tahir

Alice Walton

Lee Jae-yong

Frank Wang Tao

Larry Page

Li Ka-shing

Bernard Arnault

Larry Ellison