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Top stories

Citigroup Hires Paul Weiss to Probe Complaints Against Wealth Chief Sieg

Authors

11

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Bloomberg News

Will Elon acquire Polymarket?

Oct 8, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.68%chance

71102209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51662

5888

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.4%chance

5837870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32549

4033

Will the AI bubble pop in 2025?

Aug 12, 5:49 PMDec 31, 3:19 PM

5.23%chance

7222392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4256

235

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2025?

Nov 12, 11:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.86%chance

4220181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6902

654

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

Jul 13, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.22%chance

217030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1927

519

Which companies will the Trump administration take a stake in?

Oct 13, 12:01 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

101514

OptionProbability

USA Rare Earth

GlobalFoundries

Boeing

United Health

Tesla

AMD

Ford

Palantir

Moderna

59

37

33

28

20

20

20

17

17

BOA launches USD stablecoin in 2025?

Mar 7, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.93%chance

111181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

654

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

55.16%chance

7277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.06%chance

13270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

945

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

42.64%chance

5248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

862

Ross Ulbricht launches a legal cryptocurrency business in 2025

Jan 22, 11:55 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

57.65%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

86

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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