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Top stories

Citigroup Hires Paul Weiss to Probe Complaints Against Wealth Chief Sieg

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Bloomberg News

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

90217127

OptionProbability

Other

$190-200B

$200-210B

$180-190B

$210-220B

$170-180B

$220-230B

$230-240B

$240-250B

$250-260B

$260-270B

$130-140B

$140-150B

$160-170B

$270-280B

$280-290B

$290-300B

$110-120B

$120-130B

$150-160B

<$40B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$80-90B

$90-100B

$100-110B

$40-50B

$50-60B

18

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.72%chance

405138677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

328

Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?

Sep 19, 11:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13935377

OptionProbability

Scott Bessent

No one by end of 2026

Other

Michael Kratsios

David Sacks

Elon Musk

Sriram Krishnan

Marc Andreessen

Jensen Huang

Marco Rubio

J.D. Vance

Emil Michael

Sam Altman

Mark Zuckerberg

Donald Trump

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Leopold Aschenbrenner

Rudy Giuliani

Dean Ball

Dario Amodei

Peter Thiel

Tim Cook

Séb Krier

Keith Rabois

Jacob Helberg

Katherine Boyle

36

26

12

10

6

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz before April 5, 2027?

Apr 5, 10:29 PMApr 5, 10:27 PM

22.75%chance

478436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

543

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.37%chance

404076

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

645

Will Donald Trump visit China before January 1, 2027?

Jul 27, 10:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

51.66%chance

93109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1396

1306

Long Thanh airport becomes a national embarrassment for Vietnam?

Apr 25, 6:51 AMMay 2, 6:48 AM

25.55%chance

111632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

586

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM

31.26%chance

91154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

674

Chinese EVs manufactured in Canada?

Apr 2, 3:04 AMApr 9, 3:01 AM

48.76%chance

12481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

808

Will Aughinish announce production curtailment or major layoffs by end-2026?

Aug 8, 1:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.38%chance

2351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

45.42%chance

5298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

912

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

56.94%chance

1150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

870

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