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Top stories

Citigroup Hires Paul Weiss to Probe Complaints Against Wealth Chief Sieg

Authors

11

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Bloomberg News

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.15%chance

349106140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2125

471

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 6:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.68%chance

30575155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8484

6150

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

5149902

OptionProbability

Other

$100-110B

$90-100B

$140-150B

$110-120B

$80-90B

$120-130B

$130-140B

$70-80B

$60-70B

$40-50B

$50-60B

<$40B

20

12

10

10

9

8

8

7

6

3

2

2

1

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

Jul 13, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.36%chance

237191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2442

409

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

243539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.7%chance

292163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

778

Will Nornickel's palladium production fall below 2.3 million ounces by May 5, 2026?

Feb 4, 9:01 AMMay 5, 9:01 AM

37.06%chance

6506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

862

Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.52%chance

14320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1245

938

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

53.61%chance

7311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

45.42%chance

5298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

912

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

Whom of his own (individuals belonging to group) will Trump get rid of related to Venezuela (during term)? (add)

Jan 4, 7:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Combatant commanders/Joint Chiefs

Cabinet member

50

47

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