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Prediction markets for Blue

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

Nov 24, 12:08 AMDec 28, 12:59 PM

86%chance

8222307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2402

456

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7021658

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

65

27

5

3

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.39%chance

3611321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1851

541

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

28.55%chance

5610837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

326

Blue Origin worth more than SpaceX by EOY 2026?

Mar 11, 7:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

2.91%chance

267494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4975

66

Will social conservatism in the US significantly affect the lives of people in blue states before 2029

Jul 17, 4:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.48%chance

365582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2170

461

Will any player get a blue card in the Premiere League before 2030?

Feb 8, 8:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.13%chance

181856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

687

Will Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year?

Apr 30, 2:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.18%chance

191821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2364

423

What will Adjacent’s BLUE political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:42 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

71788

OptionProbability

99 - 107

108 - 116

90 - 98

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

Below 90

29

27

16

12

6

6

4

Destiny's Blue Coat (permanent)

Feb 9, 1:26 PMFeb 9, 11:59 PM

72.27%chance

371629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

338

100

Will a Manifold subscription include a "blue check"?

Jan 1, 1:45 AMDec 28, 12:32 PM

81.99%chance

271494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1441

837

Will Phase 2A of the Blue Line Metro in Bangalore be functional by 2028?

Jan 8, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.53%chance

31147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1476

678

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