Blueprint News

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Nov 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.88%chance

364548

OptionVotes

YES

2436

734

Will Bryan Johnson survive 99% of his generation?

Jan 13, 7:19 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

20.25%chance

111702

OptionVotes

YES

1450

153

Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?

Jun 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.22%chance

111187

OptionVotes

YES

1595

627

Will Bryan Johnson come out against linoleic acid before 2030?

Aug 15, 6:14 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

23.52%chance

5811

OptionVotes

YES

1803

555

Will Bryan Johnson die with age 10+ years greater than the life expectancy for the time of his death?

Jan 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

55.79%chance

9580

OptionVotes

YES

1123

890

Longevity escape velocity before 2030?

Jun 4, 4:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.56%chance

8198

OptionVotes

YES

291

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10138

OptionProbability

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

Will Bryan Johnson live past hundred?

Mar 24, 7:31 PMAug 22, 11:59 PM

19.22%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

205

Will Bryan Johnson date someone with an over 26 year age difference by 2031

May 4, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

160

Will Indonesia's commissioned alumina refinery capacity exceed 15 Mt/yr on December 31, 2027?

May 4, 5:15 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

27.89%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

149

Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?

Jan 23, 4:17 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

51.48%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

1035

976

Will Bryan Johnson try RTR242 by 2033?

May 18, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

120

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Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Will Bryan Johnson survive 99% of his generation?

Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?

Will Bryan Johnson come out against linoleic acid before 2030?

Will Bryan Johnson die with age 10+ years greater than the life expectancy for the time of his death?

Longevity escape velocity before 2030?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Will Bryan Johnson live past hundred?

Will Bryan Johnson date someone with an over 26 year age difference by 2031

Will Indonesia's commissioned alumina refinery capacity exceed 15 Mt/yr on December 31, 2027?

Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?

Will Bryan Johnson try RTR242 by 2033?

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