Blueprint News

When will Bryan Johnson die?

Jan 7, 6:36 PMMar 4, 2:59 AM

199266

OptionProbability

Before 2300

Before 2200

Before 2100

Before 2090

Before 2080

Before 2070

Before 2060

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

Before 2026

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Nov 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.88%chance

364548

OptionVotes

YES

2436

734

Will Bryan Johnson survive 99% of his generation?

Jan 13, 7:19 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

20.25%chance

111702

OptionVotes

YES

1450

153

Will Franky build Pluton during the Elbaf/Elbaph arc (One Piece)

Nov 26, 9:35 PMDec 3, 10:59 PM

2.89%chance

15957

OptionVotes

YES

580

Will Bryan Johnson die with age 10+ years greater than the life expectancy for the time of his death?

Jan 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

55.79%chance

9580

OptionVotes

YES

1123

890

Will Bryan Johnson come out against linoleic acid before 2030?

Aug 15, 6:14 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

37.06%chance

4311

OptionVotes

YES

1303

767

Will any US state (or DC) ban the sale of unrestricted 3D printers before 2030

Feb 23, 5:22 PMDec 31, 5:17 PM

51.1%chance

5149

OptionVotes

YES

130

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8127

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?

Jan 23, 4:17 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

51.48%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

1035

976

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

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Prediction markets for Blueprint

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When will Bryan Johnson die?

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Will Bryan Johnson survive 99% of his generation?

Will Franky build Pluton during the Elbaf/Elbaph arc (One Piece)

Will Bryan Johnson die with age 10+ years greater than the life expectancy for the time of his death?

Will Bryan Johnson come out against linoleic acid before 2030?

Will any US state (or DC) ban the sale of unrestricted 3D printers before 2030

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

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