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Prediction markets for Blueprint

When will Bryan Johnson die?

Jan 7, 6:36 PMMar 4, 2:59 AM

209987

OptionProbability

Before 2300

Before 2200

Before 2100

Before 2090

Before 2080

Before 2070

Before 2060

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

Before 2026

98

97

95

92

82

56

36

21

17

7

0

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Nov 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.88%chance

364548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2436

734

Will Bryan Johnson survive 99% of his generation?

Jan 13, 7:19 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

20.25%chance

111702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

153

Will Franky build Pluton during the Elbaf/Elbaph arc (One Piece)

Nov 26, 9:35 PMDec 3, 10:59 PM

4%chance

161136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

Will Bryan Johnson die with age 10+ years greater than the life expectancy for the time of his death?

Jan 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

55.79%chance

9580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

890

Will Bryan Johnson come out against linoleic acid before 2030?

Aug 15, 6:14 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

37.06%chance

4311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

767

Will any US state (or DC) ban the sale of unrestricted 3D printers before 2030

Feb 23, 5:22 PMDec 31, 5:17 PM

59.61%chance

7201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

59

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9128

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

50

38

7

5

Will Bryan Johnson live past hundred?

Mar 24, 7:31 PMAug 22, 11:59 PM

19.22%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

49

Will Bryan Johnson date someone with an over 26 year age difference by 2031

May 4, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

63

Will Indonesia's commissioned alumina refinery capacity exceed 15 Mt/yr on December 31, 2027?

May 4, 5:15 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

27.89%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

73

Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?

Jan 23, 4:17 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

51.48%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

976

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