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Prediction markets for Blues

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

Nov 24, 12:08 AMDec 28, 12:59 PM

71.63%chance

7217120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1488

688

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6016181

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

48

41

7

4

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

22.05%chance

518642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

258

Will social conservatism in the US significantly affect the lives of people in blue states before 2029

Jul 17, 4:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

84.62%chance

365448

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2345

426

Blue Origin worth more than SpaceX by EOY 2026?

Mar 11, 7:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.75%chance

183279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2504

399

Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?

Aug 15, 12:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.44%chance

213146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3055

812

Will any player get a blue card in the Premiere League before 2030?

Feb 8, 8:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.27%chance

171851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1427

689

Destiny's Blue Coat (permanent)

Feb 9, 1:26 PMFeb 9, 11:59 PM

72.27%chance

371629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

338

100

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.42%chance

141349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

525

Will a Manifold subscription include a "blue check"?

Jan 1, 1:45 AMDec 28, 12:32 PM

78.07%chance

251255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

895

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?

Nov 13, 3:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

22.98%chance

141009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

546

When will Blue Origin reach orbit?

Jul 30, 12:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.83%chance

10225

OptionProbability

YES

NO

172

111

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