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Prediction markets for Blume

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4574069

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

34

32

20

14

Will social conservatism in the US significantly affect the lives of people in blue states before 2029

Jul 17, 4:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.17%chance

365571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2223

450

will magic be real when this market closes

Nov 30, 5:02 PMSep 10, 5:02 AM

44.53%chance

305302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

798

Delivery Ritalin exists in one year?

Jul 4, 12:30 AMJul 4, 12:29 AM

11.59%chance

41850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2762

362

will we have evedence of aliens before 9000?

Sep 20, 7:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.26%chance

171359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

780

Standalone Twilight Princess HD on Switch 2 before market close?

Aug 1, 4:08 PMAug 2, 4:05 PM

19.11%chance

31084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2058

486

BOTW stands for breath of the wild. will i beat it by 2099?

Dec 6, 2:03 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM

62.32%chance

291038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

662

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

18.66%chance

15955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3233

2424

will magic be real before i die

Dec 21, 5:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.62%chance

15820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

444

How old will Cimorene be when she's able to travel to a BART station unsupervised?

Feb 11, 7:56 AMNov 10, 12:59 AM

34.29%chance

14248

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1036

921

By the end of 2026, will it be possible to purchase a motorcycle with a solid state battery for <$50k

Jan 6, 12:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.22%chance

5107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

985

Mike career: which happens first

Nov 17, 8:05 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3105

OptionProbability

Leave Google

L6

Jan 1 2030

44

28

28

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