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Prediction markets for BN
OptionVotes
2052
747
OptionProbability
70
19
3
2
2
2
1
OptionProbability
47
26
14
12
Will an AI be able to repeatedly write rap songs that I think are good without human input in the lyrics before 2025?
Apr 3, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
76.17%chance
221435
OptionVotes
1012
858
Will Elon Musk become twice as wealthy as both Jeff Bezos and 4th place in Forbes real time billionaires List before2029
Jun 19, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
64.24%chance
10292
OptionVotes
231
122
[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2027
Mar 24, 2:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
3275
OptionVotes
153
65
[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2030
Mar 24, 2:01 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
495
[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2027
Mar 24, 1:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
386
OptionProbability
31
24
15
15
15
[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2030
Mar 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
328
OptionVotes
115
87