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Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Boosts Alphabet Stake by 21%, Adds $1.28 Billion Amazon Position, Exits Cheniere Energy

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Boosts Alphabet Stake by 21%, Adds $1.28 Billion Amazon Position, Exits Cheniere Energy

8

6 months ago

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

167833

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3149

2724

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.78%chance

235162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

What will happen to Hugging Face?

Feb 22, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

764893

OptionProbability

Acquisition (for >$4.5bn)

IPO

None of the above before 2029

Bankruptcy, collapse or acquisition for <$4.5bn

49

28

13

11

What will the 2025 US Federal Deficit be?

Dec 7, 10:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

112596

OptionProbability

More than $2 trillion

$2tr to $1.5tr

$500 bn to 0

$1tr to -$500bn

$1.5tr to $1tr

Balanced (0 or Surplus)

Other

47

45

2

2

2

1

1

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

152431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

How much is Avatar: Fire and Ash expected to gross worldwide by the end of March?

Feb 3, 9:24 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

4837

OptionProbability

$1.7 - 1.8bn

$1.5 - 1.6bn

$1.6 - 1.7bn

$1.415 - 1.5bn

$1.8 - 1.9bn

$1.9 - 2.0bn

Above $2.0bn

26

24

23

15

9

1

1

What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?

Nov 2, 9:15 AMMay 1, 9:14 AM

33.47%chance

2420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2420

1704

[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2027

Mar 24, 2:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4350

OptionProbability

$1 - 10bn

$0 - 1bn

$10 - 50bn

$50 - 100bn

$100 - 500 bn

$500bn+

55

26

10

4

2

2

BNB crypto reaches $1,500 before April 1, 2026?

Nov 13, 10:57 PMMar 31, 10:00 PM

18.61%chance

3153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2030

Mar 24, 2:01 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

495

OptionProbability

$1 - 10bn

$10 - 50bn

$100 - 500 bn

$50 - 100bn

$0 - 1bn

$500bn+

29

27

14

13

11

6

[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2027

Mar 24, 1:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

386

OptionProbability

0 - 0.1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.1 - 0.5 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.5 - 1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

1 - 10 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

10 - 100 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

100+ thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

64

14

6

5

5

5

[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2030

Mar 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

328

OptionProbability

0 - 0.1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

100+ thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

1 - 10 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.1 - 0.5 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.5 - 1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

10 - 100 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

32

19

16

11

11

11

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