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Prediction markets for Boa

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.22%chance

316655684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2707

2466

Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?

Apr 16, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.8%chance

6064289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

50335

1987

Boa Stock

May 3, 8:02 PMMay 3, 9:59 PM

6429392

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1435

976

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

Peter Thiel cuts a check to Donald Boat by March 2026?

Aug 15, 8:54 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

10.85%chance

132650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2867

349

Movie/TV show about Sam Altman's Firing from OpenAI / Battle of the Board, before 2027?

Jun 3, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

232243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1780

562

Will I still be running LW/EA board games nights weekly in April

Jan 30, 7:38 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM

69.18%chance

61692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1498

667

Will the USA send a “Hospital Boat” to Greenland before 2027?

Feb 23, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

121452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

519

Will Sam Altman join the board of a current S&P 500 company by 2028?

Jan 23, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.63%chance

211065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

986

"Board of Peace" established before 2027?

Sep 30, 8:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.57%chance

17882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

934

Will there be a slay the spire, the board game, version in the steam store?

Jun 8, 1:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

45.42%chance

4200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

912

Will "OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 3:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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