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Prediction markets for Boa

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.68%chance

301639757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2690

2506

Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?

Apr 16, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.59%chance

6055039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

41085

2434

Boa Stock

May 3, 8:02 PMMay 3, 9:59 PM

6429392

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1435

976

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

Peter Thiel cuts a check to Donald Boat by March 2026?

Aug 15, 8:54 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

10.99%chance

92591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2846

351

Movie/TV show about Sam Altman's Firing from OpenAI / Battle of the Board, before 2027?

Jun 3, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

232243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1780

562

Will Sam Altman join the board of a current S&P 500 company by 2028?

Jan 23, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.63%chance

211065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

986

"Board of Peace" established before 2027?

Sep 30, 8:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.57%chance

17882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

934

Russia joins the Board of Peace by March 31?

Jan 25, 1:38 AMMar 30, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

7690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1660

602

Will I still be running LW/EA board games nights weekly in April

Jan 30, 7:38 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM

46.87%chance

4360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

939

Will there be a slay the spire, the board game, version in the steam store?

Jun 8, 1:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

47.74%chance

3150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

956

Will "OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 3:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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