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Prediction markets for Boa

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

323660171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2858

2143

Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?

Apr 16, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.51%chance

6169704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46020

2173

Boa Stock

May 3, 8:02 PMMay 3, 9:59 PM

6429392

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1435

976

Will an artificial agent be appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, before the S&P 500 ceases to exist?

Feb 16, 8:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.47%chance

188357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

944

888

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

Will the USA send a “Hospital Boat” to Greenland before 2027?

Feb 23, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.13%chance

152968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3362

297

Movie/TV show about Sam Altman's Firing from OpenAI / Battle of the Board, before 2027?

Jun 3, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

232243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1780

562

Will Sam Altman join the board of a current S&P 500 company by 2028?

Jan 23, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.63%chance

211065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

986

"Board of Peace" established before 2027?

Sep 30, 8:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.11%chance

18892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

925

Will there be a slay the spire, the board game, version in the steam store?

Jun 8, 1:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

45.42%chance

4200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

912

When will an artificial agent be appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company? [2 years bulk]

Apr 2, 9:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

486

OptionProbability

2046-2048

2044-2046

2030-2032

2032-2034

2034-2036

2036-2038

2038-2040

2040-2042

2042-2044

2048-2050

2026-2028

2028-2030

2050-2052

2052-2054

2054-2056

2024-2026

2056-2058

2058-2060

2060-2062

2062-2064

2064-2066

2066-2068

2068-2070

2070-2072

2072-2074

2074-2076

2076-2078

2078-2080

2080-2082

2082-2084

2084-2086

2086-2088

2088-2090

2090-2092

2092-2094

2094-2096

2096-2098

2098-2100

2100-2102

15

13

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will "OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 3:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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