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Prediction markets for Board of Elections

Trump impose large tariffs in first year?

Oct 18, 11:16 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

99.57%chance

16091897081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

244146

3321

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

Will Joe Biden win 2,024 elections?

May 9, 5:41 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3.31%chance

2011330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3165

801

Eric Adams switches party affiliation from Democrat before January 1, 2026

Dec 4, 3:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

66.33%chance

2510505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

712

Will Donald Trump win 2,024 elections?

May 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3.22%chance

237247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3587

803

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will Zelenskyy Be Illiberal by 2030?

Jan 24, 8:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.35%chance

351145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

724

Zohran Mamdani wins NYC Mayoral general election mandate (50%)?

Jul 12, 2:59 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

49.73%chance

15850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

Dec 2, 1:11 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

5275

OptionProbability

Other

North Carolina

Texas

Kentucky

Iowa

Tennessee

Michigan

Maine

Georgia

Alaska

Kansas

Montana

23

20

19

9

7

7

5

2

2

2

2

2

2026 President of the Cook County Board of Commissioners election winner

May 1, 4:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2125

OptionProbability

Toni Preckwinkle

Brendan Reilly

Other

41

32

27

Will the Washington Post endorse a presidential candidate in 2028?

Oct 26, 8:03 AMNov 2, 2:59 PM

37.78%chance

567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Who will be elected as the first Los Angeles County Executive

Jul 24, 6:19 PMJan 1, 7:15 PM

110

OptionProbability

Rick Caruso

Lindsey Horvath

No LA County Executive elected in 2028 for any reason

Other

25

25

25

25

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