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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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1
OptionProbability
An Aston Martin
Aston Martin DB Series
A car also capable of driving itself
A Land Rover
A convertible car
A motorcyle
An unpowered parachute
A motorboat
Off-road vehicle
Any rover (Range, Land, Mars, moon, etc.)
Aston Martin Lagonda
A helicopter
A jet aircraft
A penis shaped car
An electric scooter (e.g. bird/lime)
A drone/quadcopter
A sailboat
A BMW
Aston Martin Valhalla
Aston Martin Valkyrie
Aston Martin Vantage
A hang glider, wingsuit, or other unpowered gliding aircraft.
A Sea-Doo/JetSki
A zipline
A glider/sailplane
An excavator
A combustion scooter (e.g. vespa)
A taxi cab
An EMS vehicle (police car, ambulance, fire truck)
A kidnapper van
A litter/sedan chair
A race car specifically designed for racing like F1 or Nascar
A train
A Pedal bicycle
A Semi-Truck
A tank
A fixed wing single-engine aircraft
A tilt-rotor aircraft
A hydrofoil
A gyrocopter
A bus
A pair of skis
A toboggan
A hot air balloon
A golf cart
A Lada
A wheelchair
A submarine
A jetpack
A beast of burden
A Bentley
A Rolls-Royce
A vehicle integrated into footwear, such as heelys or jet boots.
A motherfucking plane full of moterfucking snakes
A spacecraft
A snowmobile
A blimp
A bulldozer
A mech
A tow truck
A Segway
A rickshaw
A chariot
piggyback ride
A Zamboni
A hyperloop capsule
A unicycle
A SpaceX Starship
A push scooter (e.g. Razor)
A Tesla
House with balloons attached to it (like the movie Up)
A pedal-powered duck boat
Cybertruck
A hoverboard
A trike
A Zorb
The Oscar Mayer Wienermobile
A penny-farthing
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OptionProbability
NO
YES
143
56
OptionProbability
Taiwan's ally count falls to 11
China destroys a Taiwanese boat with gunfire or explosives (not a water cannon)
Taiwan's ally count falls to 10
China declares a blockade of boats entering Taiwan (any number)
China shoots down a Taiwanese plane
If China attacks, they fight US forces within 21 days
China launches a missile that hits Taiwan (the island)
If China attacks, they fight US forces within 14 days
China controls Kinmen
China controls Matsu
100+ people are killed in the conflict
China controls Wuqiu
Taiwan's ally count falls to 9
Taiwan's ally count falls to 8
If China attacks, they fight US forces within 7 days
China controls Penghu
China lands troops on Taiwan (the island)
1k+ people are killed in the conflict
10k+ people are killed in the conflict
100k+ people are killed in the conflict
China detonates a nuclear weapon
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5
OptionProbability
You can go in if your boat is in this marina right now.
If there is a fire and your boat stored here burns up partially and is not seaworthy, can you go in?
If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, are you allowed in?
If you owned a boat which is here, but it's been molecularly exchanged for identical but different atoms by aliens, you can go in
If your boat here sinks can you go in?
If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, and the only one who remembers who is still alive is you, and you paid cash, are you allowed in?
You can go in if you are a guest of someone who is a boat owner.
The dock owner is not allowed to go in, unless he is or is with a boat owner
Only official owners of a specific but unspecified boat located on the dock are allowed through
You can go in if you own a real live seaworthy boat now anywhere in the world.
If you privately own the company that owns the boat, you may enter
If you stole a boat, parked it here with a legal berth lease contract, then left, and return, can you go in?
If you are a shareholder in the company that owns the boat, you may pass
If California becomes officially Marxist, where ownership is an exclusive right of the state, can you anyone go in at all?
If the 24 hour video surveillance of the marina is disabled, that invalidates that sign immediately above, creating a presumption that all the signs on the fence are false, and making it the case that only non-boat owners are allowed.
You can go in if you own any kind of boat in any condition in the world, including toy boats, model boats, Lego boats, virtual boats in baldurs gate etc.
The gate will prevent all non-boat owners from passing. Guests and passengers must swim
The sign isn't about who is allowed through, it's about the contents of what's on the other side. Everything beyond the fence is a Boat Owner.
If you own 1% of a boat here you can go in
You can go through if you open the gate
You can go in if your spouse is a boat owner
If you own half a boat stored here legally you can go in
Joshua, byrne, marcus, Odoacre, firstuserhere, and at least one legalistic fan from the UAW strike claim horror show will participate
You can go in if you have no boat, but plan to buy one someday and have a contract for a reserved berth space
You can go through if you have a contracted and paid berth here.
You can go in if you have a berth contract but are behind in payment.
Bonus: people who own three boats stored here can alternate sleeping arrangements so that in any seven day period they never sleep in one more than 3 days, legally?
This market will entirely be excluded from leagues
You can go in if you own a Binary Oxidizing Acetylitic Thermometer.
You can go in if you are a former boat owner but have converted it to a sailplane, which is here.
You can go in if you are a leashed dog that doesn't own a boat, but is with a boat owner
You can go in if you have a rental boat stored here.
Ghosts are allowed because they say B.O.O. (Boat Owners Only), which is the password
You can go in if your grandpa is a boat owner
You can go in if you are ex navy.
This market gets more than 100 bettors
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OptionProbability
scene with someone smoking
someone is shot with a gun
a scene with conspicuous focus on feet
scenes from another era/decade/time period
At least 1 use of the n-word
Quentin Tarantino has a role
at least 5 pairs of bare feet
at least 2.5 hours long
Hard drugs such as cocaine or heroin are featured (shown on camera, and/or explicitly done by a character)
characters that are two or more generations of a family (grandparents, parents, children) - including flashbacks
someone is killed with an improvised weapon
Soup is clearly visible on the screen at any moment
It will not be his 10th film.
at least 5 uses of the n-word
scene with nudity (full buttocks, genitals, breasts)
based or inspired by a true story
scenes on a boat
in production before 2026
Monologue about the good ol’ days
at least three of the actors: Brad Pitt, Zoe Bell, Samuel L Jackson, Michael Madsen, Tim Roth, Uma Thurman
Is a sequel to another preexisting film
released before 2027
scenes from somewhere outside of the US
contains a scene that breaks the fourth wall
Is a prequel to another preexisting film
at least 3 hours long
Kill Bill Vol. 2 counts retroactively / Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was final
It's the movie described in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4geaxYRgx2c
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OptionProbability
A Deutche Bahn train is delayed ***
We get an episode of The Snack Zone
Someone mentions Brian McManus
This season has more than five episodes
Sam says "We are so back" **
An athlete says that any athlete needs to "lock in" **
Toby introduces a mathematical concept
Amy from Wendover Productions is mentioned
The season features 3 distinct POVs
This season has more than six episodes
The game feature the original Tag zone map
Brian mentions Trump or Biden
Someone mentions Joseph, Scotty or Tom
An athlete mentions "cooked goose" **
Ben gets drunk (canonically)
Someone says "that's just how the jets lag" **
Adam wears a wig
We get an episode of the Zodiac Zone
Adam sings part of "Let's go to the beach, each (Starships)"
An athlete has to answer a riddle
One of the teams reaches their destination
Someone eats fondue
Sam mentions Formula One
An athlete rides a bicycle
This season has more than seven episodes
The season has more than 7 episodes
The season has more than 6 days of real-time game time
We get an episode of Choo Choo Chew
An athlete travels by boat (A->B)
An athlete swims
One of the Jet Leg trio tweets about this market before the finale*
We get an episode of Ben's Shower Corner
Michelle mentions astrology
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OptionVotes
NO
YES
999
982
OptionVotes
YES
NO
345
30
OptionProbability
Cars, e.g. Rideshare
Airplane
Boat
Micromobility
Other
29
18
18
18
18
OptionVotes
NO
YES
100
100