Bolloré Group News

Who orchestrated JFK's assassination?

Jul 3, 7:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

239108761

OptionProbability

Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)

CIA

Other US government agency or official

Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)

Mafia

Other

Cuban government

KGB / Soviets

LBJ

US military

FBI

Other US leftwing group

Other US rightwing group

US company

Foreign company

Mossad / Israeli government

Other foreign government

Aliens / Illuminati / lizard people

If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

Feb 22, 7:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22736279

OptionProbability

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI.

One person (or a small group) takes over the world and acts as a benevolent dictator.

Multiple competing AIs form a stable equilibrium keeping each other in check.

At a sufficient level of intelligence, goals converge towards not wanting to harm other creatures/intelligences.

High intelligence isn't enough to take over the world on its own, so the AI needs to work with humanity in order to effectively pursue its own goals.

There's a fundamental limit to intelligence that isn't much higher than human level.

Building GAI is impossible because human minds are special somehow.

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Aug 11, 11:37 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

18830235

OptionProbability

Gauss

Euler

Archimedes

@121

Other

Von Neumann

Ramanujan

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Michael Atiyah

Which company will buy TikTok? (resolves only if/when divested from China)

Mar 6, 9:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22625589

OptionProbability

Oracle

Other

Silver Lake

a16z

Microsoft

What will happen during Trump's second term?

Nov 8, 3:31 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

769713

OptionProbability

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

Mass Deportations

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Trump is impeached

Joe Exotic is released from prison

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

US punitive expedition in Mexico

Drone strike in Mexico by US

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

AGI achieved

100k humanoid robots manufactured

China invades Taiwan

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

Coup attempt in the United States

A human walks on the Moon

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Significant Rogue AI Incident

Supreme Court packing

Nuclear weapon detonation

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

Eagles three-peat

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

US military intervention on Canadian territory

Donald Trump reelected President

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days

100

What assets will become part of the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?

Feb 3, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

395672

OptionProbability

Bitcoin (BTC)

Gold

XRP

Government owned real estate

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

Tesla (TSLA)

Palantir (PLTR)

NVIDIA (NVDA)

U.S. Treasury Bonds

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

Ethereum (ETH)

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Walmart Inc. (WMT)

Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

CrowdStrike (CRWD)

C3.ai (AI)

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)

Dogecoin (DOGE)

Blackstone Capital Partners X

Solana (SOL)

Trump Media & Technology Group (TRUMP)

KKR North America Fund XIV

$TRUMP coin

An asteroid

Alibaba (BABA)

$MELANIA coin

Any real estate on the Moon

Any real estate on Mars

TikTok

Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?

Sep 30, 4:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

292966

OptionProbability

Palantir

Other

OpenAI

Tesla

Lockheed Martin

Boeing

Facebook

Mistral AI

Shield AI

Deepmind

Inflection

Alibaba Group

EluetherAI

Waymo

Raytheon Technologies

Anthropic

What will the Hamas Disarmament Agreement Document Include? (Set)

Oct 20, 11:01 AMDec 14, 11:54 AM

17673

OptionProbability

The word “peace”

A list of countries responsible for monitoring implementation

Destruction of tunnel networks and weapons-production facilities

A clear timeline for Hamas disarmament

A mechanism to penalize Hamas non-compliance

An internationally funded weapons buy-back and reintegration program

The word “amnesty”

Handover of Hamas authority to a committee of Palestinians under international oversight

A condition requiring approval by the Israeli government before the agreement takes effect

The word “Trump” anywhere in the document

Handover of weapons to a third country outside Palestine

“voluntary reconciliation facilities” for Palestinian fighters to give up their weapons and receive amnesty

Handover of weapons to the Palestinian Authority or another Palestinian organization

Signatures of other militias or armed groups in addition to Hamas

A clear timeline for IDF withdrawal

The word “hostage”

An apology and/or expression of regret

The word “state”

The word “Trump” in the title

An offer to integrate former Hamas members into civilian institutions or a future police or army

A mechanism to penalize Israeli non-compliance

At the end of the Myanmar Civil War, who will control a plurality of the population of Myanmar?

Dec 18, 11:47 PMDec 26, 7:59 AM

9297

OptionProbability

State Administration Council or successor military junta

National Unity Government in exile (Aung San Suu Kyi)

A majority nondemocrtic coalition of ethnic armed groups

Other

A majority democratic coalition of ethnic armed groups

China

What truths does Manifold hold to be self evident? [ ADD ANSWERS ][ READ RESOLUTION ]

Sep 4, 4:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8246

OptionProbability

1+1=2

We are currently experiencing an increase in storm intensity and extreme heat globally that are attributable to increased greenhouse gases (methane, CO2) in the atmosphere

Donald Trump is bad.

All men are created equal

“Self resolving” markets, eg that are resolved based on number of traders on each side or through a poll, should not count towards league standing

Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed

Debits are assets and expenses while credits are income and liabilities

Markets are more accurate & reliable than polls

Donald trump frequently asserts multiple lies in rapid succession - a gish gallop or throw spaghetti at wall hoping some sticks technique

A monad is a monoid in the category of endofunctors

Donald Trump is the worst president we’ve ever had

Degrading or derogatory speech directed toward individuals or groups have no place in public discourse

Government spending growing faster than GDP causes inflation

E=mc^2

All men are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights

America is a nation that can be described in a single word: asmsajskfajksfkjwq

The Final Outcome of the Marcos Jr. Presidency

Nov 15, 7:46 PMJun 29, 5:36 PM

OptionProbability

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.

Extension by ASI: A new law establishes a Supreme AI Planning Body which legally determines that the current executive is the optimal administrator and mandates their temporary continuation until a successor meets the AI's criteria.

Will a team that goes 2-2 in group advance to the single elimination round of the NBA In-Season Tournament by 2028?

Dec 2, 2:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Yes

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Who orchestrated JFK's assassination?

If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Which company will buy TikTok? (resolves only if/when divested from China)

What will happen during Trump's second term?

What assets will become part of the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?

Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?

What will the Hamas Disarmament Agreement Document Include? (Set)

At the end of the Myanmar Civil War, who will control a plurality of the population of Myanmar?

What truths does Manifold hold to be self evident? [ ADD ANSWERS ][ READ RESOLUTION ]

The Final Outcome of the Marcos Jr. Presidency

Will a team that goes 2-2 in group advance to the single elimination round of the NBA In-Season Tournament by 2028?

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