Bolloré Group News

Merch store

Predictle / any forecasting game

Charity lottery

User calibration

Better Explore page / Feed

Subscription plan

Interest on all positions

Perps

Any A/B tested UI change

Poker

Improved liquidity handling

Market Creator can approve/deny/vet user submitted answers to their markets

interesting comment notifications

Negative risk conversion

Early resolve NO for sum-to-1 multi-choice options

Space the "X" and "Add" buttons farther apart on M.C./Set markets (or change the UI for this altogether)

UI/UX changes that favor limit orders

Split MC buckets in half after creation & trading

Dependent Set/M.C. markets that can sum to 200%, 300%, 400%, and so on

Market comment section search/filter

Re-implement "Unlinked Multiple Choice" as "A bunch of full binary markets that happen to be displayed on the same page"

finer resolution betting near 0%/100%

An update to the loans / margin / capitalization system that Evan Actually Likes

Groups / communities

First class N/A resolution

Non third-party sign in

Voluntary jury duty for resolving contentious markets

Multiple non-Mod users can simultaneously share Market Creator powers of a market

Clans

Parlays

Paid DMs

Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)

CIA

Mafia

Other US government agency or official

Other

Cuban government

Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)

KGB / Soviets

LBJ

US military

FBI

Other US leftwing group

Other US rightwing group

US company

Foreign company

Mossad / Israeli government

Other foreign government

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

123

Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

A country declares war on Israel

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Successful military coup in Venezuela

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran undergoes a regime change

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Egypt formally declares war on another country

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Iran loses territory

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

China formally declares war on another country

China invades Taiwan

Any country leaves NATO

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

USA leaves NATO

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

Sudanese Civil War ends

Israel loses territory

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States formally declares war on another country

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

United States formally declares war on Iran

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Iranian troops enter Israel

Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A country declares war on United States

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Humans will extinct

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI.

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

High intelligence isn't enough to take over the world on its own, so the AI needs to work with humanity in order to effectively pursue its own goals.

Multiple competing AIs form a stable equilibrium keeping each other in check.

One person (or a small group) takes over the world and acts as a benevolent dictator.

At a sufficient level of intelligence, goals converge towards not wanting to harm other creatures/intelligences.

There's a fundamental limit to intelligence that isn't much higher than human level.

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

@121

Other

Von Neumann

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Ramanujan

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Is a man

Is under 30 years old

Has military background

Was acting alone

Is charged with murder before 2026

Is alive on 12/31/2025

Is cited by Trump administration as a reason for deploying more troops to any city by 12/31/2025

Is white and not hispanic

Is used as a pretext to restrict immigration

Has ties to extremist groups

Has ever been diagnosed with a mental health condition

Has the death penalty sought against him by the prosecution

Accepts a plea deal instead of going to trial

Is convicted in relation to these crimes by 1/1/2027

Has been awarded for services to the United States

Was motivated by political ideology

Has been convicted of a felony

Was intoxicated at the time of the shooting

Is a U.S. citizen

Had the firearm used in the crime legally

YES

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

Significant Rogue AI Incident

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

Mass Deportations

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

Coup attempt in the United States

Trump is impeached

AGI achieved

US punitive expedition in Mexico

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

Drone strike in Mexico by US

Joe Exotic is released from prison

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

100k humanoid robots manufactured

A human walks on the Moon

China invades Taiwan

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Nuclear weapon detonation

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

Supreme Court packing

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

US military intervention on Canadian territory

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Eagles three-peat

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

Donald Trump reelected President

NO

NO

Palantir

Other

OpenAI

Tesla

Lockheed Martin

Boeing

Facebook

Mistral AI

Shield AI

Deepmind

Inflection

Alibaba Group

EluetherAI

Waymo

Raytheon Technologies

Anthropic

Meta

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.