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Prediction markets for Bolloré SE

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.88%chance

34862801596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11103

8478

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

85%chance

11252153377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133827

92378

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1%chance

554928283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10435

114

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

13.78%chance

981621363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3009

589

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

36.47%chance

354297985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7016

3431

Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?

Nov 6, 5:20 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

73.22%chance

426149912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17329

3422

Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?

Oct 17, 1:16 AMJan 10, 11:59 PM

4.64%chance

169108657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

93625

5530

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.55%chance

10358928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144964

69643

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.43%chance

14057666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18795

6906

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.88%chance

12723740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3769

1429

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

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