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Prediction markets for Bolloré SE

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.64%chance

34402754093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12404

7868

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

79.42%chance

399608225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99826

98507

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48915

11661

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

22%chance

829421112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

759

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

3%chance

506420895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5831

195

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.59%chance

472396309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3236

1913

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

51.8%chance

295200899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5256

4810

Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?

Nov 6, 5:20 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

54.47%chance

26970912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12960

5849

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.74%chance

13644436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12658

10372

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

62.79%chance

6342394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129891

76988

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.33%chance

11621255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5123

1149

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM

45.28%chance

5018281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44742

35956

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