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Prediction markets for Bolloré SE

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.13%chance

34822801045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10841

8706

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

85.25%chance

10561863569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135945

92008

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.3%chance

553926462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9092

129

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

18.88%chance

971604414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2447

697

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

350295043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6430

3801

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Dec 8, 6:07 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

33.32%chance

517215611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28274

14061

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?

Jan 29, 12:35 AMNov 4, 12:00 AM

58.71%chance

326210587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12524

8004

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

41.15%chance

101120616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59424

42630

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.51%chance

9858808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144853

69696

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.43%chance

14057666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18795

6906

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

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