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Prediction markets for Bolloré SE

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.81%chance

34782796726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10702

8831

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

79.96%chance

9751691252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101217

99215

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

0.58%chance

553926313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13905

87

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

20.78%chance

936560355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2291

735

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.7%chance

835518679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58873

10436

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.87%chance

563470419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3104

2046

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

40.66%chance

348292667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6468

3775

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Dec 8, 6:07 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

53.14%chance

356126996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

837

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

64.51%chance

8579053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

68315

36630

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.33%chance

9558194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144253

69986

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.01%chance

14057416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19481

6656

Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?

Jul 28, 1:15 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

60.93%chance

497310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10266

9534

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