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Prediction markets for Bolloré SE

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.56%chance

34292734811

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12383

7881

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

455372737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3693

1551

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

77.22%chance

198241320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102503

88819

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

57.94%chance

262113131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5500

4689

Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?

Mar 31, 2:57 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

30.58%chance

336106150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1507

664

Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)

Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.26%chance

33786705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

787

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.57%chance

13343186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11734

11213

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.8%chance

5626924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114667

87209

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83%chance

11419905

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4405

1278

Will there be a second Nintendo Direct in August?

Aug 5, 1:39 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

45.23%chance

1116482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM

45.03%chance

4711308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43273

34126

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