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Prediction markets for Booking

Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)

Sep 19, 8:40 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.84%chance

87213855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48701

2854

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.73%chance

6128700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1451

549

In which year will Nassim Nicholas Taleb publish his next book

Jun 15, 4:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

525990

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2024-2025

2025-2026

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

36

19

12

7

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will a movie or TV series based on a book by Brandon Sanderson be released prior to 2027?

Aug 23, 10:55 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1%chance

5511887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5736

30

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

85.49%chance

606516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1726

1171

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.5%chance

534616

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1378

726

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.32%chance

364476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

528

Will I be able to book a commercial electrical flight between London and New York in 2040?

Mar 7, 8:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.55%chance

411685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

923

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Nov 25, 5:00 PMMar 1, 5:59 AM

15.08%chance

81654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

100

Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?

Feb 12, 11:12 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

68.77%chance

231333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1607

274

Will I be able to book an Autonomous Ride from Berkeley to SFO for less than $30, in 2027?

Aug 23, 12:51 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

29.96%chance

14705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

854

Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?

Jun 4, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.64%chance

4330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

547

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