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Prediction markets for Bookings

Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?

May 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.19%chance

474211028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4298

3273

Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)

Sep 19, 8:40 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

5%chance

84202880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47793

2901

In which year will Nassim Nicholas Taleb publish his next book

Jun 15, 4:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

422479

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

84.58%chance

545914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1630

1188

Will a movie or TV series based on a book by Brandon Sanderson be released prior to 2027?

Aug 23, 10:55 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

5.98%chance

515448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3082

100

What books will I enjoy reading?

Jun 11, 12:00 AMJun 18, 6:59 AM

64400

OptionProbability

The Singapore Story

The Diamond Age

Right Concentration (Leigh Brasington)

The Agony of Eros

The Screaming Plague of Ash

The Diceman

100

80

75

70

59

56

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

502545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

901

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.19%chance

251716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

654

Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?

Feb 12, 11:12 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

54.65%chance

211009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

425

Will I be able to book an Autonomous Ride from Berkeley to SFO for less than $30, in 2027?

Aug 23, 12:51 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

31.67%chance

13674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

805

What month (starting Jan 2023) will the next Dresden Files book (Twelve Months) come out?

Jul 25, 3:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.42%chance

3142

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2606

2433

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