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OptionProbability
On Sunday, 08/24, will Iowa State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/24, will UNLV be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/24, will Kansas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/24, will Western Kentucky be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/24, will Hawai'i be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will Penn State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will Georgia be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will Oregon be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will LSU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will Miami be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will San Diego State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Penn State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Georgia be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Oregon be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will LSU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Miami be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Illinois be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will South Carolina be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Oklahoma be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Texas A&M be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Iowa State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Georgia be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Georgia be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/28, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Oregon be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Oregon be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Penn State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Penn State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will San Diego State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Memphis be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Memphis be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Illinois be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Utah be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Utah be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will UNLV be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Iowa State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will UNLV be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Iowa State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will LSU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will LSU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Ole Miss be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Georgia Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Oklahoma be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Navy be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Memphis be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will North Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Georgia Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Miami be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Houston be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Texas Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will USC be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/28, will Iowa State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/28, will Navy be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/28, will North Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/28, will Memphis be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Oregon be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Miami be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Ole Miss be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Oklahoma be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Texas A&M be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will BYU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Georgia Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Memphis be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Missouri be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Navy be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Texas Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will UNLV be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will BYU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Georgia Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Miami be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Ole Miss be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Mississippi be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Texas A&M be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Memphis be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Navy be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Texas Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/19, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/19, will Texas A&M be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/19, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/19, will BYU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/19, will Georgia Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/26, will Navy be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/26, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/26, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/26, will Georgia Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/26, will Texas A&M be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/26, will BYU be undefeated
On Sunday, 11/02, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/09, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/16, will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/02, will Texas A&M be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/02, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/02, will BYU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/09, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/09, will Texas A&M be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/16, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/16, will Texas A&M be undefeated?
On Sunday, 12/07, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 12/21, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Friday, 1/02, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Tuesday, 1/20, will Indiana be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/24, will Kansas State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/24, will Idaho State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/24, will Fresno State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/24, will Sam Houston be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/24, will Stanford be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/28, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/19, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/26, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/02, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/09, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/16, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Penn State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Clemson be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Georgia be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Notre Dame be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will Clemson be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will Notre Dame be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will Alabama be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Michigan be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Ole Miss be undefeated?
On Sunday, 08/31, will Stony Brook be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Clemson be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Notre Dame be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Alabama be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Arizona State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Michigan be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will SMU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Florida be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Kansas State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Oklahoma be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Kansas State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will SMU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Florida be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Iowa State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Western Kentucky be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Western Kentucky be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/28, will Georgia be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Kansas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Memphis be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Boston College be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Boston College be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Boston College be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Illinois be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Illinois be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Western Kentucky be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Western Kentucky be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/07, will Bowing Green be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Bowing Green be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will UNLV be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Air Force be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Washington State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Arkansas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Arkansas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Miami be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Utah be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/28, will Penn State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Penn State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/28, will LSU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Texas State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Texas State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Appalachian State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Appalachian State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Arkansas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/28, will Arkansas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Auburn be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Auburn be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Auburn be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Wyoming be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Wyoming be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/14, will Indiana State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Indiana State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Tulane be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will North Carolina State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Cal be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Georgia Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Utah be undefeated?
On Sunday, 09/21, will Michigan be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Oregon be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Missouri be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will USC be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will LSU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Florida State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will BYU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Houston be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Iowa State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Louisville be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Maryland be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Navy be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will North Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Oklahoma be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Texas Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Vanderbilt be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Houston be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Iowa State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Louisville be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Maryland be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/05, will Vanderbilt be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Oregon be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Oklahoma be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will Missouri be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/12, will North Texas be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Miami be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/19, will Miami be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/19, will Ole Miss be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/30, will Texas A&M be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Ole Miss be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/19, will Texas Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Texas Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/19, will Memphis be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Memphis be undefeated
On Sunday, 11/16, will Memphis be undefeated
On Sunday, 11/09, will Memphis be undefeated
On Sunday, 11/02, will Memphis be undefeated
On Sunday, 11/23, will BYU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 10/19, will UNLV be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Georgia Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/23, will Navy be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/02, will Georgia Tech be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/02, will Navy be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/09, will BYU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 11/16, will BYU be undefeated?
On Sunday, 12/07, will Texas A&M be undefeated?
On Sunday, 12/07 will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 12/21 will Ohio State be undefeated?
On Sunday, 12/21, will Texas A&M be undefeated?
100
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100
100
55
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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OptionProbability
Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots
Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Chargers
Dallas Cowboys
Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Commanders
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals
Carolina Panthers
Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans
New York Jets
New York Giants
New Orleans Saints
Minnesota Vikings
Las Vegas Raiders
Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals
15
9
9
9
9
7
7
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth
Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders
ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)
Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council
ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive
Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ
Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya
Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons
Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council
Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council
Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election
Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)
Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council
Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets
Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire
Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest
Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles
Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb
Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p
Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined
Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market
Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%
Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users
Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended
Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_
Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council
Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators
Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund
Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it
Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).
add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council
Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil
Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come
Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined
ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)
ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council
DUPLICATE - NA
ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.
ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)
ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered
ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)
ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals
Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event
Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)
Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council
Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze
Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)
Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible
Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.
Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it
Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana
Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council
Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024
Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot
Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb
Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse
Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)
Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate
Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly
Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council
Proposal: add @firstuserhere to the security council
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87
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79
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42
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41
34
32
32
26
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23
18
15
11
OptionProbability
Boxing
Greco-Roman Wrestling
Beach Volleyball
Golf
Surfing
Weightlifting
Sport Climbing
Modern Pentathlon
Cricket
3x3 Basketball
Taekwondo
U23 Football (Soccer)
Heptathlon
Skateboarding
Lacrosse
Squash
Baseball
Flag Football
Rhythmic Gymnastics
Bouldering (alone, not part of a combined event)
Netball
Softball
Rugby League
Touch (aka Touch Football or Touch Rugby League)
Lead (alone, not part of a combined event)
BMX Freestyle
Dressage
More than 12 Freestyle Wrestling categories
50 kilometres race walk
Skateboard Vert
Lifesaving
Compound Bow Archery
Kickboxing
Keelboat Sailing
Karate
Men's Rhythmic Gymnastics
Motorsports
Women's Greco-Roman wrestling
Beach Sprint Rowing
Racquetball
Australian Rules Football
Pickleball
Lightweight Rowing
Ultimate
Breaking
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74
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28
26
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18
12
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1111
761
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1173
894
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1443
693
OptionProbability
Glass of Thrones letdown (polished)
Watching Harry Potter 1 on airplane and rewinding and quoting over and over the meme wizard chess section
Quick dialog sketch: "Oh my gosh a black cat, we're going to have so much bad luck now" "Wait you don't really believe in that kind of stuff do you?" "See look we're already fighting :("
Friend who took a long time in the bathroom
Coaching my girlfriend to queue up match highlights from another room to avoid spoilers
Spies when they accidentally bite the poison pill hidden in their tooth
Sketchy human ATM
Depression after a team I never heard of loses
Before Sunrise POV in record shop
Whatever the next clip of me doing standup is
Nervously removing a bunch of 'remove before flight' aviation tags from the counter of a helicopter tour company
Glass of Thrones letdown
Remembering that PBR was a thing
Gross side of owls delivering mail in the great hall
A compilation of OpenAI employees interrupting ChatGPT (and potentially gradually fading to a scene from terminator)
Demo of the new ChatGPT but it's way too flirty
Candy addiction hotline
Having a bone to pick with soccer players doing a “bow and arrow” celebration but letting go of the bow
Friend who thinks they're safety officer
Brainstorming how to become viral
Slytherin doing the math
Cheap Airbnb tour
American Express review
Future Me
How it feels logging in with authenticator (shot in the style of dramatically diffusing a bomb)
NFC Translation
Satire of sales ads
Saying "Damn" in front of a dam.
Every time I try to order a beer
Dreamy nonsensical philosophy shot
Thinking I'm admiring the view from the Tokyo Skytower only to reveal that I don't realize I'm actually at the base of it.
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100
76
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71
69
68
66
66
62
59
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58
58
56
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54
53
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51
50
50
50
48
46
45
41
37
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1077
929
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1234
810
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1350
741
OptionProbability
Team Ruff
Team Fluff
50
50