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Prediction markets for Brazilian

Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jun 15, 5:53 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

40.53%chance

5715640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

440

Will Lula be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jan 9, 5:15 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

96.4%chance

377997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5380

491

Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?

Aug 31, 2:24 AMOct 3, 11:59 PM

2.55%chance

135602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6182

162

When will the Brazilian National Data Protection Authority (ANPD) publish its first dataset on dados.gov.br?

Feb 8, 10:24 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

153309

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

75

75

62

56

0

0

Will Jair Bolsonaro be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jan 9, 5:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

3.17%chance

172389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2439

877

Will Fernando Haddad be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jul 4, 11:56 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

1.06%chance

101627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

32

Will Sergio Moro complete his term as Brazilian Senator?

Mar 31, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.76%chance

6843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

70

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

Dec 26, 3:45 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

48.51%chance

18772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

78

Will Jair Bolsonaro ever be a candidate again for any Brazilian presidential election?

Nov 21, 1:38 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

2.25%chance

11677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

648

22

Will the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?

Feb 6, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.8%chance

6450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Will the Brazilian minimum wage reach R$ 2030 before 2030 ends?

Apr 15, 8:10 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

32.45%chance

7291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

109

Will the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

May 2, 1:02 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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