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Prediction markets for Brazilian

Will Brazilian ineligibility laws be revised to allow Bolsonaro to run for office in 2026?

Feb 4, 5:35 PMAug 2, 3:59 AM

7.87%chance

1416797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14892

52

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?

Jan 27, 1:53 AMOct 25, 8:00 PM

3310846

OptionProbability

Lula

Other

Tarcísio de Freitas

Fernando Haddad

Michelle Bolsonaro

Geraldo Alckmin

Ratinho Junior

Gusttavo Lima

Pablo Marçal

Jair Bolsonaro

Ciro Gomes

Eduardo Leite

Ronaldo Caiado

Romeu Zema

Simone Tebet

Tabata Amaral

38

22

18

7

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential elections?

Feb 10, 2:06 AMDec 1, 6:59 PM

3.36%chance

104875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

801

52

Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jun 15, 5:53 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

35.17%chance

353820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1465

376

Will there be more deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in 2025 than in 2024?

Jan 29, 11:08 AMFeb 1, 3:59 AM

34.57%chance

102809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3834

68

Who will be on the ballot for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jan 27, 2:03 AMOct 5, 3:59 AM

142653

OptionProbability

Lula

Léo Péricles

Tarcísio de Freitas

Michelle Bolsonaro

Gusttavo Lima

Fernando Haddad

Romeu Zema

Soraya Thronicke

Simone Tebet

Sofia Manzano

Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

Ciro Gomes

João Doria

64

63

51

50

27

23

23

17

15

10

8

7

7

4

Will Lula be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jan 9, 5:15 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

63.55%chance

241880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

773

Will Jair Bolsonaro be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jan 9, 5:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

5.35%chance

151429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

918

Will Brazilian President Lula pass away in 2025?

Jul 27, 8:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

22.15%chance

191277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

533

Will Jair Bolsonaro ever be a candidate again for any Brazilian presidential election?

Nov 21, 1:38 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

17%chance

10604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

53

Will the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?

Feb 6, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.8%chance

6450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Will Partido Novo gain at least 2 seats in the 2026 Brazilian national legislative elections to the Chamber of Deputies?

Mar 24, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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