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Prediction markets for Brexit Party

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

3511167

OptionProbability

2029

Other

2026

2027

2028

2025

2030

2024

40

19

11

11

10

5

3

0

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

18.54%chance

173475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2096

477

Will Reform UK top the YouGov voting intention poll at the time of the next UK general election, but lose?

Feb 12, 2:39 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

18.98%chance

111953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2066

484

Who will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)?

Mar 11, 7:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

121482

OptionProbability

Other

Richard Tice

Lee Anderson

Party ceases to exist

Zia Yusuf

James McMurdock

Rupert Lowe

54

14

9

9

7

5

3

Will there be a Scottish independence referendum (indyref2) by 2030?

Sep 10, 4:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.51%chance

16348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

939

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

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