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Prediction markets for Broad Institute

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.88%chance

19492958217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40002

4496

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Feb 12, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

6215941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?

May 18, 2:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.53%chance

284174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2528

395

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

2028 US election: peaceful transfer of power to a non-authoritarian leader?

Jul 13, 11:18 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

75%chance

171380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1732

577

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?

May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM

24.54%chance

24710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1312

868

Will China abandon its Hukou system by 2030?

Aug 31, 3:03 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.01%chance

6176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

67

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8170

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

65

21

11

4

Will the Broad institute catalogue tissue samples from Bryan Johnson by EOY2029?

Sep 18, 9:29 PMSep 26, 3:59 AM

29.43%chance

155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.44%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

92

Will there be a Python implementation of the Open Game Engine (a Compositional Game Theory Model Checker) before 2028?

Apr 13, 12:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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