Broad Market News

YES

YES

YES

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

YES

YES

YES

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

YES

EU Parliament gets right of Legislative Initiative

Broad consensus on CMU (Capital Markets Union) completion

EU institution controlling an army of over 20,000 personnel

EU-wide UBI

S&D becoming the largest group in the EP

EU Parliament gaining full co-decision powers on all EU legislation

(to be resolved N/A)

A new Treaty will reform the EU constitution (as Lisbon or Maastricht Treaties did)

Abolition of unanimity in foreign policy

Direct election of the Commission President by the population

At least 1/3 of the Parliament elected on Union-wide lists

EU overtaking the USA in GDP (PPP)

EU achieving net-zero carbon emissions

Abolished Daylight Saving Time

EU institution controlling an army of over 100,000 personnel

Nuclear weapons under the control of an EU institution

EU-wide minimum wage

Option 1: Team A (The Firebrands: Sifuna/Babu/Arati/Orengo) - Resolves if Sifuna remains SG or ODM officially supports a presidential candidate (even from another party, e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang'i)with a nod from the firebrands

Option 2: Team B (The Broad-based: Wanga/Joho/Mbadi) - Resolves if a Team B member becomes SG or the party officially joins the Government coalition for 2027.