Broker News

US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility

Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)

UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution

Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem

Iranian General killed inside Iran

Donald Trump declares victory

Iranian government official declares victory

China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal

US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days

Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours

War ends in 2025

500+ Iranian civilians killed

US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year

Fordow facility successfully bombed

Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites

Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal

Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil

Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed

Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict

War Ends in June

Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA

Iran launches a cruise missile

Israel government dissolves

At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason

North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)

Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel

Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)

Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)

Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"

Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA

Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council

Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%

Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz

A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank

USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution

Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours

Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.

Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran

Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar

WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)

>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict

>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict

A second cease-fire is announced

Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours

USA conducts a second bombing in Iran

A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed

Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)

Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)

Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict

Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace

Iranian government dissolves

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz

Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon

Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%

Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day

Iran regime change

Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)

Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform

Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil

UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes

Saudi Arabia attacks Iran

Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed

Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally

Iran tests a nuclear weapon

Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026

There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.

Total casualties exceed 10,000

Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive

War ends in July

Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi

State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran

Qatar attacks Iran

≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict

US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)

Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025

A nuclear weapon is used offensively.

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Sudanese Civil War ends

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Any country leaves NATO

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China invades Taiwan

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

USA leaves NATO

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

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