BRU News

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.25%chance

9444946

OptionVotes

YES

7335

4553

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2618842

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

The bet will be annulled

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

Boston Bruins (NHL)

Oct 27, 9:32 AMApr 20, 9:20 PM

1011833

OptionProbability

David Pastrnak finish as leading goal scorer for the Bruins in 2024-25

Cole Koepke plays 35 games with Bruins in 2024-25

Mark Kastelic plays 50+ games with Bruins in 2024-25

Bruins 10+ overtime losses in 2024-25

Bruins in Stanley Cup series by 2030

Bruins change logo by 2040

David Pastrnak 50+ goals AND 100 points in 2024-25

David Pastrnak 10+ power play goals in 2024-25

Charlie McAvoy 12+ goals in 2024-25

Charlie McAvoy 40+ assists in 2024-25

Brad Marchand 70+ points in 2024-25

Brad Marchand 60+ penalty minutes in 2024-25

Hampus Lindholm 70+ games plays with Bruins in 2024-25

Elias Lindholm finish as a point per game player in 2024-25

Bruins finish 2024-25 with 100 points

Bruins make it to 2024-25 Conference Finals (round 3 of NHL playoffs)

100

Will an AI-fabricated police brutality video receive major news coverage by end of 2025?

Jun 19, 9:59 PMJan 5, 7:59 AM

36.53%chance

549449

OptionVotes

YES

1742

637

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

61.64%chance

176330

OptionVotes

YES

12676

7889

Will any AI solve more than four of AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025?

Jan 2, 1:04 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.22%chance

142596

OptionVotes

YES

1595

627

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.71%chance

121255

OptionVotes

YES

10481

9520

Will I, brubsby, be alive in 2069?

Sep 5, 4:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

88.36%chance

141094

OptionVotes

YES

1315

899

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:51 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM

42.35%chance

32874

OptionVotes

YES

1159

691

Will Tory Bruno continue as ULA CEO through the end of 2025?

Aug 16, 10:31 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

73.59%chance

3670

OptionVotes

YES

1669

599

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Apr 29, 9:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.47%chance

6585

OptionVotes

YES

1585

631

Will Soylent or IRN-BRU get a bottle of their drink to the moon first?

Mar 30, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

786

OptionProbability

Irn-Bru

Soylent

BRU News

Prediction markets for BRU

Prediction markets for BRU

Prediction markets for BRU

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Boston Bruins (NHL)

Will an AI-fabricated police brutality video receive major news coverage by end of 2025?

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Will any AI solve more than four of AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025?

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Will I, brubsby, be alive in 2069?

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Will Tory Bruno continue as ULA CEO through the end of 2025?

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Will Soylent or IRN-BRU get a bottle of their drink to the moon first?

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