OptionProbability
Saxony
Thuringia
Brandenburg
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Saxony-Anhalt
Berlin
Saarland
Hamburg
North Rhine-Westphalia
Lower Saxony
Hesse
Bremen
Rhineland-Palatinate
Schleswig-Holstein
Baden-Württemberg
Bavaria
100
98
80
77
58
51
38
37
31
20
19
16
13
5
2
AfD
Grüne
Die Linke
SPD
CSU
FDP
CDU
BSW
65
59
54
49
27
24
23
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1455
687
3 parties
No majority possible with only broadly centrist parties
2 parties (or less)
4 parties (or more)
14
Linke
69
41
34
30
AfD + BSW
CDU + BSW + SPD
CDU + SPD
CDU + Left + BSW
Left + SPD + Greens
None by 2031
CDU + Left + SPD
CDU + SPD + Greens
AfD alone
Other
Left + BSW + SPD
AfD + CDU
18
11
9
8
7
6
3