BSW News

Which German states will have Sarah Wagenknecht's BSW in their parliaments after their next elections?

Oct 23, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

337474

OptionProbability

Saxony

Thuringia

Brandenburg

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Saxony-Anhalt

Saarland

Berlin

Bremen

Rhineland-Palatinate

Schleswig-Holstein

Hesse

Lower Saxony

North Rhine-Westphalia

Hamburg

Baden-Württemberg

Bavaria

100

Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Sep 22, 6:35 PMMar 22, 7:31 PM

5769

OptionProbability

3 parties

No majority possible with only mainstream parties

4 parties (or more)

2 parties (or less)

Which parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?

Feb 27, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

22760

OptionProbability

AfD

Die Linke

Grüne

SPD

CSU

FDP

CDU

BSW

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

66.16%chance

9512

OptionVotes

YES

1398

715

Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election?

Apr 13, 2:28 PMMar 5, 7:59 AM

5.45%chance

9449

OptionVotes

YES

416

Will Germany's Federal Constitutional Court rule that the 2025 election votes must be recounted (BSW complaint)?

Feb 11, 11:09 AMMar 24, 11:59 PM

8373

OptionProbability

Yes, partial recount

Neither (e. g. court stays neutral and refers the case back to parliament, or no verdict happens before the next election)

Other

Yes, full recount

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

13.76%chance

12342

OptionVotes

YES

250

Which parties will gain seats in the next Thuringian state election?

Mar 3, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

11183

OptionProbability

Linke

SPD

Grüne

CDU

AfD

FDP

BSW

Which coalition will govern Thuringia after the next state election?

Mar 1, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12117

OptionProbability

AfD + BSW

CDU + BSW + SPD

CDU + SPD

CDU + Left + BSW

Left + SPD + Greens

None by 2031

CDU + Left + SPD

CDU + SPD + Greens

AfD alone

Other

Left + BSW + SPD

AfD + CDU

If Germany's 2025 election votes are (fully or partially) recounted, will BSW reach 5% of votes?

Feb 11, 11:11 AMMar 24, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

1100

909

BSW News

Prediction markets for BSW

Prediction markets for BSW

Prediction markets for BSW

Which German states will have Sarah Wagenknecht's BSW in their parliaments after their next elections?

Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Which parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election?

Will Germany's Federal Constitutional Court rule that the 2025 election votes must be recounted (BSW complaint)?

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Which parties will gain seats in the next Thuringian state election?

Which coalition will govern Thuringia after the next state election?

If Germany's 2025 election votes are (fully or partially) recounted, will BSW reach 5% of votes?

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