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Prediction markets for BU

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Jan 7, 4:02 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

11.81%chance

1255772941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2735

366

Will $Kendu reach 100B MC in next bull run?

Sep 13, 10:15 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

1.92%chance

2473999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55171

691

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2159110

OptionProbability

Other

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Matt Giacona

Trump not elected President

57

24

18

1

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.61%chance

3519502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14866

7407

Dylan Burns Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 9:28 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

12416369

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2049

1813

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

7210411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4186

2254

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

58.04%chance

828232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12716

9569

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

135579

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

31

6

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

Oct 24, 2:27 PMAug 31, 6:59 AM

30.95%chance

302890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

671

Will Montreal remove its 233m height limit on buildings?

Aug 4, 1:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.41%chance

10209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

80

Will "Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 4:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:24 PM

00

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

No translation is published before 2028

17

17

17

17

17

17

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