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Prediction markets for BU

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Jan 7, 4:02 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

9%chance

1268787314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3182

315

Will $Kendu reach 100B MC in next bull run?

Sep 13, 10:15 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

1.26%chance

2483999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65171

533

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2364892

OptionProbability

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Other

Matt Giacona

Trump not elected President

65

29

5

1

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.61%chance

3519502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14866

7407

Dylan Burns Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 9:28 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

12416369

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2049

1813

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

58.04%chance

828233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12717

9569

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

217452

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

31

26

15

15

13

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

155892

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

31

6

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

Oct 24, 2:27 PMAug 31, 6:59 AM

28.93%chance

313121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1570

639

Will Montreal remove its 233m height limit on buildings?

Aug 4, 1:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.41%chance

10209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

80

Will "Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 4:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

How many points will the Bundesliga 2026/27 champion finish with?

Jul 3, 11:28 AMJul 3, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 71

71 - 74

75 - 78

79 - 82

83 - 86

Above 86

17

17

17

17

17

17

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