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Prediction markets for Bubble

Will the AI bubble pop in 2025?

Aug 12, 5:49 PMDec 31, 3:19 PM

4.22%chance

7324498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4763

210

Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?

May 22, 1:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72%chance

8518297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1512

682

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

Oct 26, 11:38 AMDec 31, 10:29 AM

585596

OptionProbability

By 3-31-2028

By 12-31-2027

By 9-30-2027

By 12-31-2026

By 6-30-2027

By 3-31-2027

By 9-30-2026

By 6-30-2026

By 3-31-2026

By 12-31-2025

55

48

41

36

36

34

27

19

16

5

[Metaculus] Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?

Apr 20, 10:26 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

2.05%chance

185494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

40

Is Nvidia a bubble? (Fixed version)

Mar 8, 7:30 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

12.9%chance

245159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

817

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

294265

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

60

13

8

6

5

4

4

Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression?

Nov 19, 12:05 AMJan 1, 11:56 PM

65.58%chance

303494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1380

724

Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?

Jun 20, 4:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52%chance

261537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

961

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

13894

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

U.S. Real Estate

Nuclear energy

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Ukraine

Oil and fossil fuels

Space exploration

Other G7 Real Estate

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

India

Mexico

China

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Carbon capture

42

13

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the Taleyarkhan bubble fusion result replicate by 2044?

Feb 25, 10:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.75%chance

19726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

952

Will there be a VR/AR bubble by 2029?

Feb 2, 9:00 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

38.55%chance

8281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

645

310

Will there still be a bubble tea shop in NY Penn Station at the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 5:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70%chance

770

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

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