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Prediction markets for Buckle

Will Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022?

Mar 16, 6:10 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

16.4%chance

9715078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9194

4582

Will software engineer's real salaries be lower in 2026 than they were in 2022, per Levels.fyi? (Inflation adjusted!)

Mar 20, 8:39 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

46%chance

174246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

936

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

How many predictions did the FT writers get wrong for 2025?

Jan 5, 4:19 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

31378

OptionProbability

6

5

7

4

3

2

8

9 or more

0

1

36

17

17

9

6

4

4

3

2

2

Will ""Buckle up bucko, this ain't over till it's o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 6, 5:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.44%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

754

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