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Prediction markets for Budget

Will Trump and Elon cut the Federal Budget by more than $1 Trillion/yr by the end of 2025?

Nov 10, 5:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.3%chance

16742960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8726

115

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.58%chance

7132050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25925

4669

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion?

Feb 21, 8:13 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

40.27%chance

1517376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1754

546

Does the US Federal Government spend 1% of its budget on dialysis?

Oct 24, 4:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.22%chance

286741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

946

Will a movie with a budget >$500M be released by 2026?

Jan 23, 3:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.68%chance

283078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

749

Will a Nintendo Switch 2 budget model be released before 2029?

May 23, 12:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

80.01%chance

101409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2001

500

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

ICE spends at least $25.5 billion in 2025? (budget estimate: $30 billion)

Jul 7, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.18%chance

19929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1782

520

Will the NIH's annual budget in 2028 be at least 50% lower than its 2024 budget in nominal dollars?

Dec 17, 4:11 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

25.41%chance

9848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2214

1084

Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)

Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.61%chance

7435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

744

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

EPA budget for water quality programs cut by ≥10% in FY2026 budget

Nov 22, 3:30 PMSep 30, 12:00 AM

51.23%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

976

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