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Prediction markets for Build

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.92%chance

7211589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2835

709

Who first builds an Artificial General Intelligence?

Jun 13, 11:35 PMDec 30, 3:44 AM

1138618

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

A Chinese lab

Other

Other U.S. source

Meta (formerly Facebook)

29

23

17

12

9

8

2

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

217452

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

31

26

15

15

13

Will Saudi Arabia build a structure at least 100m x 100m x 1000m before 2040

Aug 2, 7:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59%chance

296850

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

205

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3137

320

US government builds first AGI-level system?

Nov 20, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.61%chance

253639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2091

478

Will NYC build more housing in 2026 than 2025 iff Zohran wins? (Or less housing if he doesn't.)

Jun 29, 2:58 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

40.38%chance

183040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?

Jan 9, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.11%chance

542139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

875

Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?

Mar 30, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.53%chance

201561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

739

Will one of the Trump Tower buildings in the United States be renamed before 2030?

Jan 16, 5:17 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

51.52%chance

19746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

589

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Will Montreal remove its 233m height limit on buildings?

Aug 4, 1:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.41%chance

10209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

80

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