Bullet News

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Did it on purpose

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

US citizen

Male

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Born in the United States

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Native English speaker (L1)

Is a registered voter

used a bolt action rifle

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

n/a

White

20-27 years old

Skinny

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

Is named Tyler Robinson

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Resided in the same state as the incident

ectomorph body type

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

disliked Charlie Kirk

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

Acted alone (no accomplices)

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Gamer

Hunter

iphone user

Motivated primarily by political ideology

Will plead guilty

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

Unemployed

Is left wing

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

has a furaffinity account

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

Is sentenced to death

Furry

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

Not a virgin

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Strongly opposes zionism

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

N/A (oops)

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

Dies in prison

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

has used the word yiff in written communication

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

Has ADHD

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

6 ft tall

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

was prescribed psychiatric medication

has vore kink

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Owned the firearm used

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Will kill again (including suicide)

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

White cis-hetero Christian man

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Participates in this market

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

student at any university

Owns a fursuit

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

Has a Bluesky account

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

psychedelics user

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

Was on an FBI watchlist

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

Had diagnosed mental illness

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Fan fiction author

Femboy

History of illegal drug addiction

Escapes carceral detention

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

History of domestic violence

Is right wing

has significant student load debt

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Transgender

groyper

Left-handed

Had felony conviction previously

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is Mossad

Was a student at UVU

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

Incel

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

White Nationalist

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Involved in Effective Altruism

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Has a parent who drives for Uber

decel

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Teenager

50 years or older

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Is or was a computer science student

Ex law enforcement

Married

Parent

Manifold assists with his capture

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

Indian national

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

NO

On Earth

Before 2045

Before me

In the US

Before WW3

Before we have an universal flu vaccine

Before we get ASI

In the Eastern time zone

Natural causes

In a hospital

After his presidency

in bed

Before we get AGI

When BTC is below $100.000

Closer to Venus than to Mars

When BTC is above $80.000

Surrounded by his friends and loved ones

At or greater than 20m above sea level (using https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-nb18/United-States/ to verify if necessary)

In his sleep

In Florida

After my Manifold account has been inactive for 12+ months

Before 2030

Closer to Venus than to the Sun

After he announced he is sick

Mar-a-Lago

In a way that Manifold finds suspicious, according to a Manifold poll

Before potato2017 gets a world record in any competitive achievement leaderboard in the online game tetr.io

Closer to Mars than to the Sun

Within 6 months of leaving office

By assassination

After 2035

In New Jersey

While in office

On a Thursday

The White House

On a Sunday

On a Monday

On a Tuesday

On a Wednesday

On a Friday

On a Saturday

After 2040

While mercury is in retrograde

2030

While doing a speech

In front of a camera

During WW3

With a bullet inside his body

2029

Outside (not in a vehicle or building)

2027

2028

2031

2032

2033

On an airplane

2035

2037

2034

2035

On TV

2038

2026

2039

After J D Vance dies

In Russia

In Qatar

On a gold toilet

Q2, 2026

Food poisoning

In Greenland

He will become effectively immortal

While doing a funny dance

Post a Tweet

Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

Bomb Iran

Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

Enrich himself & his family financially

Shake hands with Putin

Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

Play golf

Shake hands with Xi Jinping

Start a war

Deny Climate Change

Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

Increase US oil production

Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

Attend at least one current state leader funeral

Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

Exercise

Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

Shake hands with Donald Tusk

Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

Get impeached

Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

Pardon himself

Withdraw support for Ukraine

Have a net approval below -20% at any point

Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

Leave office early

Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

End SBA direct lending

Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

Reference "Situational Awareness"

Eat a hamnhrb

Pass away

Die

Attempt to stay in power for a third term

Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

Pardon SBF

Make America Great Again

Order a nuclear strike

Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president

Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

Ban TikTok

Withdraw the US from NATO

Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

Cry on camera

Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

Direct the killing of a political opponent

Be removed via the 25th Amendment

Buy Greenland

Do another Home Alone cameo

At least one shot was fired

Someone was hit by a bullet (or other firearm projectile)

The shooter is (or all shooters are) identified or caught within 24 hours of the shooting.

The first shot was entirely outside of (not from or into) the ballroom

Shooter had donated to a candidate through actblue (Dem platform) before

The shooter or shooters have a manifesto

Shooter is an adult (18 yo+)

Shooter is confirmed to be Cole Tomas Allen

At least one shot was fired by a security / Secret Service person

The shooter is (or shooters are) motivated by a grievance against the President or one or more members of the administration

Shooter acted alone (No accomplices)

Shooter is motivated by left-wing politics

MAGA uses incident to bolster urgency for ballroom

Shooter was a devout Christian

Shooter had donated to the Ukrainian military

The shot that hit an agent's vest was friendly fire

Jimmy Kimmel will be suspended/cancelled over the Melania comments

Congress authorizes Trump’s ballroom

Attempt at Market Manipulation discovered

Staged / organised by Trump or associates

The shooter is (or shooters are) motivated by a grievance against the press or a member of the press

Shooter is linked to Iran

Shooter had donated to a candidate through winred(gop platform) before

Shooter wrote on bullets

Shooter is linked to Islamic terrorism

Shooter is a furry

Shooter is motivated by right-wing politics

Shooter was threatened or blckmailed

It was a distraction from Trump firing all 24 members of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s governing body

An invited guest (not including security) fired at least one of the shots

Shooter has a Manifold account

Shot(s) were fired at the President

The show will go on

YES

Team Nate (Shapiro, Booker, Gavin…)

YES

Other

synthetic bioweapons

nuclear weapons

bullets, shaped charges, blades, and other conventional munitions and edged weapons

nanotech/diamondoid bacteria

nerve agents

NO

NO

YES