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Prediction markets for Bump

Will Apple release an iphone without a camera bump before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:26 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

5.42%chance

225773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4125

329

Will Sam Altman and Dario Amodei hold hands again, before 2030?

Feb 19, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.6%chance

18973

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1322

756

Ten years after Trump’s departure from politics, will he see a George Bush style approval ratings bump?

Apr 21, 2:35 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

20.06%chance

17685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

858

Which of these websites/apps will be sold or cease to exist by end of 2028? [Add answers]

Mar 25, 6:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14608

OptionProbability

Hive Social

Pillowfort

Bump

Itaku.ee

Threads

Linktree

Telegram

Truth Social

X (formerly Twitter)

Bluesky

Signal

LinkedIn

Discord

Tumblr

Wikipedia

56

54

50

46

31

28

24

19

18

17

17

17

15

15

10

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

Jan 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.98%chance

3180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Members of the legislature (congress, parliament) in a country come to blows this year? mega-market

Mar 22, 7:24 PMDec 31, 8:16 PM

6105

OptionProbability

Egypt

France

Spain

USA

India

UK

54

51

46

44

41

15

Will the OceanGate cofounder's other company explore Dean's Blue Hole and resurface without injuring anyone by EOY 2026?

Jun 20, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.86%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Have you ever randomly bumped into another non-famous Manifold user in the wild? (either online or IRL)

Jun 26, 4:59 PM

330

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