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Prediction markets for Bund

Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 10:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

467161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18%chance

336854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2134

469

German Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?

Oct 22, 9:09 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

15.51%chance

132305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?

May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.76%chance

201911

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1721

581

Which states will report local cases in the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak

May 19, 9:46 AMOct 30, 11:59 PM

9509

OptionProbability

Any EU country

South Sudan

Rwanda

Burundi

Republic of the Congo

Central African Republic

India

Tanzania

Zambia

Angola

USA

China

100

67

59

55

54

51

43

41

41

41

23

23

Will Bayern Munich win the 2026/2027 Bundesliga season

May 31, 11:33 AMMay 22, 4:00 PM

76.79%chance

7458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1387

851

Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election?

Apr 13, 2:28 PMMar 5, 7:59 AM

5.45%chance

9449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

416

24

Which teams will be promoted to the Bundesliga from the 2026–27 2. Bundesliga?

May 31, 12:32 PMJun 1, 9:00 PM

3187

OptionProbability

Any Other

VfL Wolfsburg

Hannover 96

Hertha BSC

FC St. Pauli

1. FC Heidenheim

68

58

33

30

28

26

If the AfD enters the federal government after the next Bundestag election, will §86a StGB be repealed or altered?

Jan 20, 8:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.35%chance

3116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will there be a >7 team tournament between MLS and Serie A or MLS and Bundesliga by 2030?

Aug 5, 3:20 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

22.8%chance

242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

47

Will Heye Groß win the Verdienstorden der Bundesrepublik Deutschland by EOY2060?

Sep 21, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

How many points will the Bundesliga 2026/27 champion finish with?

Jul 3, 11:28 AMJul 3, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 71

71 - 74

75 - 78

79 - 82

83 - 86

Above 86

17

17

17

17

17

17

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