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Prediction markets for Bund

Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 10:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.66%chance

6113395

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

806

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.76%chance

4410757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

543

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

62.46%chance

382885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

242

Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?

May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.76%chance

201911

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1721

581

Which states will report local cases in the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak

May 19, 9:46 AMOct 30, 11:59 PM

101357

OptionProbability

Any EU country

South Sudan

Tanzania

Central African Republic

Rwanda

Zambia

Angola

China

Republic of the Congo

USA

India

Burundi

100

54

42

42

39

33

25

25

21

21

21

18

Will Bayern Munich win the 2026/2027 Bundesliga season

May 31, 11:33 AMMay 22, 4:00 PM

85.26%chance

101258

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2017

708

Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election?

Apr 13, 2:28 PMMar 5, 7:59 AM

10.48%chance

11467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Which teams will be promoted to the Bundesliga from the 2026–27 2. Bundesliga?

May 31, 12:32 PMJun 1, 9:00 PM

3187

OptionProbability

Any Other

VfL Wolfsburg

Hannover 96

Hertha BSC

FC St. Pauli

1. FC Heidenheim

68

58

33

30

28

26

How many Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths by the end of 2026?

Aug 18, 10:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

580

OptionProbability

7500-10,000

5000-7500

<5000

10,000-12,500

12,500-15,000

Other

36

17

14

11

11

11

Will there be a >7 team tournament between MLS and Serie A or MLS and Bundesliga by 2030?

Aug 5, 3:20 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

22.8%chance

242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

47

Will Heye Groß win the Verdienstorden der Bundesrepublik Deutschland by EOY2060?

Sep 21, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

How many points will the Bundesliga 2026/27 champion finish with?

Jul 3, 11:28 AMJul 3, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 71

71 - 74

75 - 78

79 - 82

83 - 86

Above 86

17

17

17

17

17

17

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