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Top stories

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

Authors

11

4 months ago

Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service Plan With Conscription Backstop

Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service Plan With Conscription Backstop

Authors

35

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Bundestag

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.22%chance

2653835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40660

7821

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Jan 29, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.68%chance

185087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1826

806

In which months of 2025 will there be a general federal election (Bundestagswahl) in Germany?

Nov 7, 1:45 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

191463

OptionProbability

February

November

December

January

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

100

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

66.73%chance

161406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

71

German Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?

Oct 22, 9:09 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

9.52%chance

7927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

308

32

Which german party will lead the national Polls by the end of 2025?

Nov 15, 2:50 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

15916

OptionProbability

AfD

CDU/CSU

SPD

Greens (Alliance 90/The Greens)

Die Linke (The Left)

BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance)

FDP

Other

79

18

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will Jens Spahn step down as leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag in 2025?

Jun 25, 1:13 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

21.42%chance

12883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

40.03%chance

8554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1224

817

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

67.92%chance

9455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1455

687

Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Sep 22, 6:35 PMMar 22, 7:31 PM

4399

OptionProbability

3 parties

No majority possible with only broadly centrist parties

2 parties (or less)

4 parties (or more)

38

27

20

14

When will Germany decide about its nuclear waste repository?

Jul 23, 4:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.03%chance

8316

OptionProbability

NO

YES

436

242

In which state will Germany decide to build a radioactive waste repository before 2069?

May 17, 6:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7221

OptionProbability

No Bundestag decision before 2069

Brandenburg

Bavaria

Lower Saxony

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

North Rhine-Westphalia

Schleswig-Holstein

Saxony-Anhalt

Thuringia

Baden-Württemberg

Berlin

Hesse

Rhineland-Palatinate

Saxony

Bremen

Hamburg

Saarland

40

28

8

4

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

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