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Top stories

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

Authors

11

1 year ago

Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service Plan With Conscription Backstop

Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service Plan With Conscription Backstop

Authors

35

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Bundestag

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Jan 29, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.14%chance

227039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

736

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

49%chance

234498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

65%chance

382868

OptionVotes

NO

YES

269

232

German Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?

Oct 22, 9:09 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

15.51%chance

132305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will the EU cease to exist within the next 10 years?

Jun 29, 12:23 PMJun 25, 9:23 PM

16.93%chance

152296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2215

451

Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.82%chance

121137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2436

1693

Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Sep 22, 6:35 PMMar 22, 7:31 PM

5769

OptionProbability

3 parties

No majority possible with only mainstream parties

4 parties (or more)

2 parties (or less)

41

34

15

9

The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️

Apr 23, 4:55 PMApr 20, 4:51 PM

28.46%chance

7637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

66.16%chance

9512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

715

Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election?

Apr 13, 2:28 PMMar 5, 7:59 AM

5.45%chance

9449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

416

24

In which state will Germany decide to build a radioactive waste repository before 2069?

May 17, 6:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10253

OptionProbability

No Bundestag decision before 2069

Brandenburg

Bavaria

Lower Saxony

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

North Rhine-Westphalia

Schleswig-Holstein

Saxony-Anhalt

Thuringia

Baden-Württemberg

Berlin

Hesse

Rhineland-Palatinate

Saxony

Bremen

Hamburg

Saarland

40

29

8

4

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

If the AfD enters the federal government after the next Bundestag election, will §86a StGB be repealed or altered?

Jan 20, 8:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.35%chance

3116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

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