Bureau News

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

53.65%chance

317256965

OptionVotes

YES

5083

5010

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2058388

OptionProbability

Other

Matt Giacona

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Trump not elected President

US recession in 2026?

Sep 3, 1:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.1%chance

6935283

OptionVotes

YES

18790

5330

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

Jan 5, 7:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.2%chance

8112563

OptionVotes

YES

3364

Which government agencies will DOGE announce it seeks to privatize or eliminate?

Dec 17, 4:02 AMJul 5, 3:59 AM

5011102

OptionProbability

Department of Education

Federal Statistical Agencies

Transportation Security Administration (TSA)

National Weather Service

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

Internal Revenue Service

Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)

National Institutes of Health

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)

National Park Service (NPS)

Small Business Administration

Federal Bureau of Investigations

Freddie Mac

Ginnie Mae

Fannie Mae

The Supreme Court

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

US Postal Service

Amtrak

100

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM

599528

OptionProbability

Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

Attorney General: Pam Bondi

Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

United States Trade Representative: James Greer

Ambassador to the United Nations:

Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

President: Donald Trump

Vice President: JD Vance

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

Nov 26, 6:08 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

34.92%chance

226959

OptionVotes

YES

13651

7326

If the Gulf of Mexico is renamed to the Gulf of America, will it be because…

Jan 8, 6:30 AMJan 20, 7:59 AM

255117

OptionProbability

An executive order is issued and upheld requiring all federal agencies to use the new name?

It changes on Google Maps?

The Interior Secretary orders the name change?

Louisiana changes the name on official state documents and maps?

USGS updates Geographic Names Information System, or G.N.I.S., to reflect the name change?

Florida changes name on official documents and maps

Texas changes the name on official state documents and maps?

The Department of Defense mandates the use of the new name in all military operations and documents?

Alabama changes name on official documents and maps?

NOAA officially adopts the new name in all nautical charts and documentation?

The President requires states to change references to the name in order receive federal aid?

A joint resolution of Congress (not from MTG) approves the name change?

Legislation drafted by Marjorie Taylor Greene is passed by Congress and signed by the President?

The Foreign Names Committee of the US Bureau of Geographic Names approves a change to the official name?

The International Hydrographic Organization approves the change?

Mexico agrees to the name change through diplomatic channels?

A treaty between the U.S., Mexico, and Cuba establishes the new name?

100

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

12472

8018

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

24.44%chance

224116

OptionVotes

YES

1759

569

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

Jan 5, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.24%chance

461473

OptionVotes

YES

1080

817

No AI prediction on manifold will ever be correct for the duration of this site, except purely bureaucratic changes

Apr 14, 11:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

177

104

Bureau News

Prediction markets for Bureau

Prediction markets for Bureau

Prediction markets for Bureau

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

US recession in 2026?

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

Which government agencies will DOGE announce it seeks to privatize or eliminate?

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

If the Gulf of Mexico is renamed to the Gulf of America, will it be because…

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

No AI prediction on manifold will ever be correct for the duration of this site, except purely bureaucratic changes

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