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Bureau of Economic Analysis News

US Economy Expands 3.3% in Second Quarter on Trade, Investment

US Economy Expands 3.3% in Second Quarter on Trade, Investment

30

10 months ago

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Trims Q3 US Growth View to 2.3%

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Trims Q3 US Growth View to 2.3%

5

10 months ago

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Lifts Q3 US Growth Estimate to 3.5%

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Lifts Q3 US Growth Estimate to 3.5%

14

10 months ago

US recession in 2026?

Sep 3, 1:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.95%chance

13094962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27170

3686

When will the next US recession be?

Aug 8, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:06 PM

3924504

OptionProbability

Before Q1 2030

Before Q3 2029

Before Q1 2029

Before Q3 2028

Before Q1 2028

Before Q3 2027

Before Q1 2027

Q1 2030 or later

Before Q3 2026

Before Q1 2026

74

66

59

56

53

41

27

27

5

1

Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?

Apr 14, 8:06 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

30.21%chance

1712057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1520

658

[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Jan 6, 11:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

17.29%chance

339085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8381

4121

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:34 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

46%chance

222443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

464

Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?

Aug 12, 12:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.56%chance

111038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2028

493

Will any year's US GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?

Nov 3, 5:37 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

15%chance

151020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:35 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

43%chance

16987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

765

Will the tariffs be successful in bringing back manufacturing to the US ? (2026)

Apr 9, 4:31 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

8743

OptionProbability

0% to 3%

3% to 6%

- 2% to 0%

Below - 2%

6% to 9%

9% to 12%

12% to 15%

Above 15%

30

20

19

13

9

3

3

3

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:30 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

77%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

385

112

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

Nov 9, 12:21 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

23.98%chance

17523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

977

Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?

Nov 7, 10:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

55.44%chance

8248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

896

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