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Prediction markets for Business Development

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Elon Musk financially backs campaign to remove Trump from office?

Jun 6, 3:13 PMDec 31, 4:06 PM

18.12%chance

172277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2126

470

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Jan 18, 10:56 AMMay 31, 10:59 PM

45.88%chance

91293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

921

Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?

Mar 4, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

39.68%chance

141178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

741

Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez?

Dec 22, 3:32 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

25.36%chance

51095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

583

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.97%chance

11799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1364

733

If Manifold Markets as it is now goes out of business, it continues on in a useful form

May 2, 5:52 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

80.02%chance

15413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

929

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:28 AMDec 7, 4:28 AM

31.34%chance

5400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

859

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

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