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Prediction markets for Business Development

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

16.12%chance

112352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2281

438

Elon Musk financially backs campaign to remove Trump from office?

Jun 6, 3:13 PMDec 31, 4:06 PM

18.12%chance

172277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2126

470

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Jan 18, 10:56 AMMay 31, 10:59 PM

45.88%chance

91293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

921

Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez?

Dec 22, 3:32 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

25.36%chance

51095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

583

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:27 AMJan 1, 4:24 AM

23.89%chance

8612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

740

If Manifold Markets as it is now goes out of business, it continues on in a useful form

May 2, 5:52 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

80.02%chance

15413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

929

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:28 AMDec 7, 4:28 AM

31.34%chance

5400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

859

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