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Top stories

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Prediction markets for Business Insider

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

56%chance

656209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

755

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

184256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3019

331

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

15.77%chance

242953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2311

433

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

36.12%chance

11684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

752

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.57%chance

4317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

876

Now Target buys Starbucks on 2032

Feb 10, 2:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.98%chance

6161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

I make a coin-pusher game?

Dec 3, 9:43 PMApr 5, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2030

Aug 5, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.61%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

65

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027

Aug 5, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.98%chance

233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will California repeal or significantly amend Proposition 103 by December 31, 2028?

Jan 10, 2:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2028

Aug 5, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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