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Top stories

China Unveils Mosquito Drone, Tests Cyborg Bees for Stealth Reconnaissance

China Unveils Mosquito Drone, Tests Cyborg Bees for Stealth Reconnaissance

Authors

105

1 month ago

Tesla Plans Safety-Driver Robotaxi Service for San Francisco Bay Area

Tesla Plans Safety-Driver Robotaxi Service for San Francisco Bay Area

Authors

17

7 days ago

Prediction markets for Business Insider

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

7.9%chance

183860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3414

293

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

58.31%chance

472415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

717

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

29.38%chance

231983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

645

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

34%chance

11621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

718

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.57%chance

4317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

876

Will Google Chrome's "Privacy Sandbox" have user opt-in rates similar to third-party cookies?

Jan 23, 4:34 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

73.38%chance

2110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

In 2025, how many large US chains will start programs or promotions targeted at people living in vehicles long-term?

Jan 9, 6:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

332

OptionProbability

1-4

5 or more

0

37

34

29

Will California repeal or significantly amend Proposition 103 by December 31, 2028?

Jan 10, 2:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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