OptionProbability
GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)
Cabinet level current us official visits greenland
Trump visits greenland
GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)
Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)
Us has another military base at least 500 personnel
Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now
Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028
Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)
Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov
Greenland population falls below 40000
Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200
Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)
Greenland has a military
20+ story building built
Greenland significantly changes its flag
Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers
Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay
Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it
USD is the used currency
40+ story building built
81
80
54
39
25
23
22
21
20
17
16
14
11
10
7
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1781
562
180
56
75
65
