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Which of these bad policies will the US abolish by 2050?

Dec 31, 5:11 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

663584

OptionProbability

Affirmative action

the jones act

Subsidies for corn/HFCS

Disparate impact doctrine

Rent control

H1B caps

Social promotion in school

First-past-the-post voting

Federal subsidies for a negative-sum signaling arms race in higher education

Non-land property taxes

Buying a latte with bitcoin incurs capital gains because bitcoin counts as property instead of currency

Feds arresting people for plots that the feds planned and recruited them for (entrapment)

Payroll taxes

Sales taxes

Wage control

Income taxes

Will Manifold enable purchasing Mana with Bitcoin before 2030?

Aug 30, 5:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.48%chance

341197

OptionVotes

YES

1101

916

At the end of Juneteenth 2026 (June 19) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?

Jan 12, 7:48 PMJun 20, 3:59 AM

9.37%chance

8450

OptionVotes

YES

396

Will Trump’s Truth Social ($DJT) buy Bitcoin? (Trump Media & Technology Group) 🤑📈🏦🟠

Dec 26, 5:36 AMJan 26, 12:59 PM

94.44%chance

4417

OptionVotes

YES

412

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ...?

Feb 2, 1:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5280

OptionProbability

Q4 2026 (October 1 - December 31, 2026)

Q3 2026 (July 1 - September 30, 2026)

Q2 2026 (April 1 - June 30, 2026)

Q1 2026 (by March 31, 2026)

At the end of Groundhog Day 2028 (Feb 2) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?

Jan 12, 7:52 PMFeb 3, 4:59 AM

8.91%chance

6237

OptionVotes

YES

309

At the end of Boxing Day 2027 (Dec 26) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?

Jan 12, 7:46 PMDec 27, 4:59 AM

39.14%chance

5176

OptionVotes

YES

108

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

17.24%chance

4148

OptionVotes

YES

219

Bitcoin proves robust longterm investment by 2040?

Sep 29, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.66%chance

4143

OptionVotes

YES

218

Achieve 1000Mana profit on Bitcoin related markets

Feb 29, 2:19 PM

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Which of these bad policies will the US abolish by 2050?

Will Manifold enable purchasing Mana with Bitcoin before 2030?

At the end of Juneteenth 2026 (June 19) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?

Will Trump’s Truth Social ($DJT) buy Bitcoin? (Trump Media & Technology Group) 🤑📈🏦🟠

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ...?

At the end of Groundhog Day 2028 (Feb 2) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?

At the end of Boxing Day 2027 (Dec 26) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Bitcoin proves robust longterm investment by 2040?

Achieve 1000Mana profit on Bitcoin related markets

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