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Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Dec 18, 5:45 PMDec 17, 6:59 AM

15872003

OptionProbability

He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

He leaves Argentina during his first term

He travels to Chile during his first term

He travels to Brazil during his first term

He is photographed with Elon Musk

A photo of him with Trump is released

A photo of Milei with Biden is released

His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position

Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?

Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?

Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]

Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]

Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better

His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered

Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]

Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39

Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%

According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]

There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.

He wins reelection to a 2nd term

A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him

Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?

The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]

LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?

The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]

Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place

LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?

He travels to Bolivia

Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term

Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup

Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)

He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal

He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX

Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees

Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]

He goes incommunicado for at least a week

Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)

Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish

He marries during his first term

He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term

US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina

He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week

There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired

He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it

Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup

Will he ever be TIME person of the year?

He officially converts to Judaism

Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term

He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years

He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]

He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]

Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)

Argentina will win the 2026 world cup

He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]

The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office

The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use

He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office

He travels to Russia during his first term

Argentina will declare war

He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election

He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash

Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?

He has a child during his first term

He is excommunicated by the catholic church

He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]

He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash

He passes away during his first term before completion

There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side

Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week

Will Argentina join BRICS?

100

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

15284

6552

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

YES

1439

695

Will we have androids with full human labor capabilities under 10K$ till 2030?

Jan 6, 5:15 AMApr 30, 5:59 PM

9.95%chance

191232

OptionVotes

YES

1217

940

Trump/US reaches a deal with Denmark to sell Greenland in 2026?

Jan 22, 1:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.58%chance

81091

OptionVotes

YES

411

Will I be able to purchase a house robot by the end of 2026?

Mar 13, 4:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

15333

OptionVotes

YES

153

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

China gets direct land access to the sea of Japan from Russia through 2032

Sep 12, 11:27 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

45.3%chance

10221

OptionVotes

YES

201

172

Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?

Sep 24, 6:29 PMDec 31, 7:29 PM

45.87%chance

3201

OptionVotes

YES

1086

921

How high will the industry average german THG quota payout tonne of CO2 be in 2025?

Jan 2, 10:37 AMFeb 28, 10:59 PM

2174

OptionProbability

120€ - <140€

90€ - <100€

80€ - <90€

100€ - <120€

60€ - <70€

70€ - <80€

140€ - <160€

<40€

50€ - <60€

160€ - <180€

180€ - <200€

≥200€

40€ - <50€

TRUE or FALSE: "The US government has ruled that COVID-19 most likely came from a Lab Leak"

Dec 16, 3:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.1%chance

575

OptionVotes

YES

113

Will Hubris ship in a non-Oxide Computer Company product this decade?

Sep 1, 12:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

OptionVotes

YES

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Prediction markets for Buy China

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Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Will we have androids with full human labor capabilities under 10K$ till 2030?

Trump/US reaches a deal with Denmark to sell Greenland in 2026?

Will I be able to purchase a house robot by the end of 2026?

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

China gets direct land access to the sea of Japan from Russia through 2032

Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?

How high will the industry average german THG quota payout tonne of CO2 be in 2025?

TRUE or FALSE: "The US government has ruled that COVID-19 most likely came from a Lab Leak"

Will Hubris ship in a non-Oxide Computer Company product this decade?

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