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Prediction markets for Buy or Hold

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Jan 7, 4:02 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

15.4%chance

1238729127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

427

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.96%chance

625661045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13577

540

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

156235174

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

88

12

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

9.3%chance

11643385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31251

3205

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?

Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM

8.23%chance

2626595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33403

2994

How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?

Apr 2, 12:16 AMJan 4, 11:59 PM

3515069

OptionProbability

Other

51

49

50

52

48

47

45

46

44

21

18

15

15

12

6

4

3

3

2

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

58.04%chance

818210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12716

9569

How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?

Feb 26, 8:03 PMNov 4, 12:00 AM

132850

OptionProbability

At least 44

At least 45

At least 46

At least 47

At least 48

At least 49

At least 50

At least 51

At least 52

At least 53

99

98

94

90

85

77

70

46

27

15

Will this tweet hold up: Sinners will be — should be — a Broadway show by 2035

Mar 16, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.1%chance

81526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7454

4864

Which degrees/certifications will RY hold in 7 years?

Nov 24, 12:53 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Any PhD

Rabbinical smicha

JD

50

50

50

Will the KMT gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?

Dec 23, 4:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Gain

Hold

Lose

33

33

33

Will the DPP gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?

Dec 23, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Gain

Hold

Lose

33

33

33

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