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Prediction markets for Buy or Hold

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Jan 7, 4:02 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

9%chance

1246743560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3182

315

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.32%chance

625672861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9302

597

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

170258912

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

90

10

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

9.23%chance

11644350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31394

3191

Will Vivek Ramaswamy Hold an Official Position in Trump’s White House?

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.72%chance

17742411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7301

1020

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?

Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM

8.23%chance

2626595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33403

2994

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

58.04%chance

828232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12716

9569

Will this tweet hold up: Sinners will be — should be — a Broadway show by 2035

Mar 16, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.1%chance

81526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7454

4864

Which degrees/certifications will RY hold in 7 years?

Nov 24, 12:53 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Any PhD

Rabbinical smicha

JD

50

50

50

Will the DPP gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?

Dec 23, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Gain

Hold

Lose

33

33

33

Will the KMT gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?

Dec 23, 4:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Gain

Hold

Lose

33

33

33

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