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Prediction markets for Buy or Hold

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Jan 7, 4:02 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

21%chance

1208710486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1941

516

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.17%chance

621655252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4756

713

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

147221821

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

88

12

Will Vivek Ramaswamy Hold an Official Position in Trump’s White House?

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

10.26%chance

17642206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7057

1047

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

8.33%chance

11441549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33195

3018

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?

Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM

8.09%chance

2426356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33707

2967

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

63.04%chance

796801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14151

8635

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

926

Will the DPP gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?

Dec 23, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Gain

Hold

Lose

33

33

33

Will the KMT gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?

Dec 23, 4:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Gain

Hold

Lose

33

33

33

Which degrees/certifications will RY hold in 7 years?

Nov 24, 12:53 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Any PhD

Rabbinical smicha

JD

50

50

50

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