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Top stories

Ethereum Retraces After Hitting 7-Month High Above $3,900

Ethereum Retraces After Hitting 7-Month High Above $3,900

Authors

13

2 days ago

Prediction markets for By

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.82%chance

1029138455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344298

43497

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22.85%chance

1981559965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1804

1736

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.67%chance

18391290856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4963

3791

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17782

9207

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.05%chance

941600472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11197

8835

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

31.05%chance

165276698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148701

67433

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.91%chance

176211240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5780

3435

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

50%chance

217172957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

940

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

70%chance

227113753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

655

Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?

Jun 1, 9:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

9075160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75857

45831

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

25%chance

6662788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

907

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