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Top stories

India Successfully Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Agni-5 Missile With 5,000 km Range, Mach 24 Speed From Odisha on August 20

India Successfully Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Agni-5 Missile With 5,000 km Range, Mach 24 Speed From Odisha on August 20

Authors

22

4 months ago

Prediction markets for BY

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.81%chance

1279603195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

656217

28211

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.99%chance

2161715494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2682

1537

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

44%chance

20031595840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4892

3847

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Dec 1, 2025?

Aug 11, 9:50 AMDec 15, 11:59 PM

2.12%chance

1331496415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

679485

14717

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.96%chance

958695792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9982

9903

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48915

11661

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.05%chance

480364042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2865

2074

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

44.8%chance

202330854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110653

90434

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.04%chance

194268635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5839

3348

Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?

Jun 1, 9:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.85%chance

120243647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139948

27580

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

46%chance

232195052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1215

1031

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.15%chance

17160323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10776

7116

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