OptionProbability
Imane Khelif is intersex
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Human didnt evolve from apes
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
√-1 isn't real
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Dead Internet theory
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The CIA killed JFK
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Gamergate was right
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
China made covid 19 in a lab
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
Princess Diana was assassinated
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Harold Holt murdered
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
A cure for cancer has already been found
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Israel killed JFK
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Exercise is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Bush did 9/11
QAnon
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
The moon landing was fake
climate change isn't human caused
Michelle Obama is a man
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Climate change isn’t real
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
95
91
90
88
83
80
76
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75
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71
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70
69
61
52
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8
8
8
8
8
8
8
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7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more
a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
this market reaches 100 traders
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
First game of the MLB World Series starts
trump removes a cabinet member
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
this market reaches 5k individual TRADES
English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more
Saw XI Releases in USA
alan greenspan passes away
MLB rookie of the year announced
coup in an african country
noam chomsky passes away
chinese spy balloon incident reported on news
another trump assassination attempt
discord IPO happens
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
2025 nobel peace prize winner announced
Hades 3 announced (game)
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses
Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage
zootopia 2 releases
Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year
Cy Young award winner announced
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
manifold raises more money
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube
stripe ipo happens
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
Third dune movie officially announced
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
Skate 4 releases
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
windows 12 announcement is made
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
the third Atlantic hurricane of the season
someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard
trump starts mass deportations
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase
Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam
grok4 release date
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
the third Pacific hurricane of the season
28 years Later releases in USA
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
chime IPO happens
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
First Apple Event of the year
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
manifest 2025 ends
Manifest 2025 starts
Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers
Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more
English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more
claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
Last day of the NFL draft
Llama 4 released to the general userbase
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
south korean president removed from power
the first Solar eclipse of the year
First Nintendo direct of the year
trump declares war or orders military actions on another country
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico
new iphone releases in the USA (official date)
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
new iphone release date announced (in the USA)
grok 3 release date
nintendo switch successor announced officially
trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china
CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)
doomsday clock announcement
USA President issues 10th executive order
USA President issues 1st executive order
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
this market reaches 1k individual TRADES
98
94
86
86
86
86
81
79
79
78
76
76
75
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72
72
72
72
71
69
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60
58
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20
19
18
17
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14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Cascading failure (like something went wrong and the recovery procedure had an issue that made it worse)
Loss of synchronism
Strain on electrical/transmission infrastructure principally caused by renewable energy sources
Low or insufficient inertia
Battery storage
Renewables made the grid less stable
Never found root cause
Accidental infrastructure damage (fallen tower, wildlife, etc)
Bad weather
The cause didn't originate in Spain (was propagated by EU grid)
Intended infrastructure damage (cable cut, bomb, etc)
It's declared a cyber attack
Cyber attack & Russia-funded
Cyber attack & independent group
"Intern plugged wrong cable"
Cyber attack & USA-funded
94
61
20
20
20
14
12
9
7
6
4
3
3
2
2
1
OptionProbability
Sabotage
Shipping mishap
Cause will not be found
Other
On-land mishap
96
16
7
4
2
OptionProbability
China launches military drills around Taiwan
Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations
Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged
China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military
A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up
Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure
At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan
China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft
At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China
A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model
Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer
Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft
China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US
China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan
China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production
China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan
A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
Reports that China is building new concentration camps
A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault
Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China
Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)
A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window
Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome
Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific
Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure
A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances
Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military
the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)
A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China
Significant constitutional crisis in the US
Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military
A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)
Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company
Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window
Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West
Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea
1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured
50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia
the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China
A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene
The US bombs Iran
Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific
A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan
A human walks on the Moon
At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear
Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
The US reduces sanctions on Russia
Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia
The US attempts to expand its territory by force
Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere
Elon Musk is pardoned
China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds
The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion
Attempted coup in Taiwan
the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China
Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader
The US withdraws from NATO
Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader
100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia
Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)
AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity
North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
The US military performs combat operations in Mexico
Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader
India detonates a nuclear weapon
Russia cedes territory to China
Vladivostok is not under Russia's control
Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals
Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine
Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building
Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)
Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)
An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast
China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries
AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity
A major pandemic occurs
Attempted coup in Russia
Attempted coup in the Phillipines
The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory
The US detonates a nuclear weapon
The US attacks a NATO member
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges
A nuclear weapon is detonated
Attempted coup in China
Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands
Successful revolution in Iran
Russia detonates a nuclear weapon
Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges
Attempted coup in the US
Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges
China detonates a nuclear weapon
Japan detonates a nuclear weapon
South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
Australia detonates a nuclear weapon
A room temperature superconductor is discovered
90
84
79
77
76
75
72
70
70
70
66
66
66
66
61
60
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60
57
55
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31
28
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25
22
15
12
12
7
5
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3025
101
OptionVotes
YES
NO
4539
220
OptionVotes
NO
YES
4496
3654
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1800
555
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1219
751
OptionProbability
Cable-stayed bridge
Suspension bridge
No new crossing
Immersed tunnel
Arch bridge
Beam bridge
Truss bridge
Bored tunnel
Other
62
12
8
7
2
2
2
2
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
119
102