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Prediction markets for Cadence

Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?

Jun 11, 2:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.79%chance

1515784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10697

2759

It is possible to write standard C++ with memory safety guarantees similar to Rust by the end of

Sep 15, 6:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

185190

OptionProbability

2037

2033

2030

2027

17

13

9

1

Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?

Dec 18, 3:13 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

99%chance

293564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

10

When will Gemini CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33253

OptionProbability

June 2026

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

December 2026 (or later)

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

January 2026

February 2026

15

14

14

13

8

7

7

7

7

7

1

1

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33088

OptionProbability

June 2026

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026 (or later)

January 2026

February 2026

16

15

15

10

7

7

7

7

7

7

1

1

When will Meta release Llama 5?

May 20, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

151138

OptionProbability

Before January 2028

Before July 2027

Before January 2027

Before July 2026

Before January 2026

53

50

38

11

0

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

# of New Glenn launches in 2030 calendar year

Nov 29, 10:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11360

OptionProbability

10-19

5 - 9

0 - 4

20-39

40-79

80-159

160+

28

26

18

13

7

5

3

Will Google provide seven years of software support for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro?

Oct 7, 10:31 PMOct 13, 4:59 AM

80%chance

8331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

92

Will New Glenn launch more than Falcon 9 in 2030?

Dec 21, 12:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.53%chance

484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

73

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