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Prediction markets for CAED

Pacific Coast Highway: can it be driven from SF to LA on these days? (CA Route 1 closures/washouts/fires), til 2030

Jan 9, 9:03 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

82738

OptionProbability

July 1 2028

July 1 2029

Jan 1 2027

July 1 2027

Jan 1 2028

Jan 1 2029

August 1 2025

July 1 2026

May 1 2026

March 1 2026

Jan 1 2026

Dec 1 2025

Sep 1 2025

July 1 2025

March 1 2025

June 1 2025

55

55

50

50

50

50

50

48

45

37

21

19

18

0

0

0

Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025

Apr 12, 4:55 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

36%chance

342207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

887

CA cities failing their housing element is gonna be a colossal ($100s Billions) deal, in hindsight in 2025

Jan 31, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.59%chance

241695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2147

579

Will "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5.32%chance

31500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2497

862

Will the CA FAIR plan get a bailout by 2026?

Jan 9, 8:03 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

7795

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Vote rigging scandal in UK, CA, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, DK, Sweden, Finland, or Ireland before 2027?

Dec 1, 9:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.25%chance

21731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

941

Will Teslas in CA still be allowed in HOV lanes (free/reduced) after 30 Sep 2025?

Jun 3, 9:11 PMOct 1, 11:59 PM

53.42%chance

8415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

934

Will the '24 CA "Advanced Clean Trucks" requirements be successfully implemented?

Jun 8, 12:49 PMDec 31, 6:01 AM

69.62%chance

2385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

928

346

Reviver, a digital license plate company, is out of business or failing in CA before EOY 2027

Sep 26, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.14%chance

12332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

953

Will Zoox obtain an Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Permit from the CA DMV in 2025

Dec 10, 10:03 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

57.79%chance

3170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

855

Will "Should CA, TX, OK, and LA merge into a giant ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 9, 4:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

2164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

85

How many Democratic Representatives will CA elect in 2026?

Jul 12, 5:14 AMNov 5, 11:59 PM

2140

OptionProbability

34+ (2010 result)

39+ (2016 result)

40+ (2022 result)

43+ (2024 result)

46+ (2018 result)

90

83

76

76

24

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