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Prediction markets for CAL

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50148046

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Virtually impossible

46

27

20

7

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

85.58%chance

1721452

OptionVotes

NO

YES

35974

6720

Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:45 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

65.51%chance

920209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13783

7255

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

61.52%chance

816970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12644

7909

Will Jamie Joyce win the 2026 12th California Congressional district race?

Jun 18, 9:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

4%chance

1716175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5116

497

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

42.62%chance

810267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11603

8618

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.57%chance

69585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11889

8411

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

52.89%chance

69260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10595

9438

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.31%chance

66603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11826

8456

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

64.03%chance

85478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13342

7495

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

42.66%chance

74730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11593

8626

Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

37.86%chance

64494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12811

7806

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